7/24: Saratoga Steeplechase Kiser Race 1

[Flatterer]

What a super tough edition of the Kiser for Novices on tap Wednesday 7/24.

First a quick recap of Sunday’s race. Whitman’s Poetry clipped heals with Markhan after the 5th fence. This slowed Markhan down and effectively took him out of the race. Repeat Repeat went to the front as expected and Cite got first run down the backstretch the final time. Leading steeplechase trainer Jack Fisher wins again. Had the correct race shape, and Fisher took advantage of the problems encountered by the favorites. Renown has a foot abscess and may reenter for 7/31 race if healed.

The Kiser has a nice balance of front end runners, stalkers, off pace closers and Euros making their first US start. With 4 front runners, the pace will be fast. #10 Belisarius is expected to scratch and run Thursday in the Smithwick.

After looking at all the runners, here are the significant angles. Flat track speed is important since there are only 8 jumps. The NSA rating system has tried to parallel the Euro rating system and has had some success meaning that 142 or 141 rating in Europe is the same as a 142 or 141 rating in the US. Leading trainer Jack Fisher’s 3 runners have to be considered. Trainer Sheppard is 2nd in races and money won this year.

#1 Redicean, #2 Help From Heaven, #3Boss Man, #4 Storm Team, #6 Lord Justice, #10 Belisarius have the best flat track speed with #3 Boss Man, #4 Storm Team the speed of the speed. From the NSA/Euro rating system, #11 Arch My Boy (142) has the highest rating, #1 Redicean (141) is next and the highest US runner is #10 Belisarius (132). After that #6 Lord Justice (128) is next then #3 Boss Man(125) and the rest are between 123 – 121. Trainer Fisher has #4 Storm Team, #6 Lord Justice, #8 Our Legend and Sheppard has #9 Sportswear.

Race shape will have #3 Boss Man and #4 Storm Team going quick early resulting in a strung out line the first time down the backstretch. #2 Help From Heaven #5 Corkey Lemon, #6 Lord Justice, #8 Our Legend, #9 Sportswear #10 Belisarius will be in the stalking group and #1 Redicean will lead the closers. Saving ground on the turns and getting first run the final time down the backstretch will be key to victory. #3 Boss Man may still be in front over the last fence but #1 Redicean, #2 Help From Heaven, #6 Lord Justice #9 Sportswear, #10 Belisarius #11 Arch My Boy will stack up for the first run on the backstretch the final time and will continue to make strong runs on the final turn.

As a result, half the field has a chance to win.

I’ll go with #1 Redicean Won $8.50, #2 Help From Heaven 3rd#6 Lord Justice 4th, #9 Sportswear (SCR)as my top picks (A) and #10 Belisarius (SCR) and #11 Arch My Boy 2nd (B).

$1 Exacta $44.50, $0.50 tri $107.12, $0.10 super $87.85

Good Luck!

[ninetoone]

Thanks for the analysis. Will save me from throwing darts....somewhat at least!

[ninetoone]

Excellent job!

Originally Posted by Flatterer

What a super tough edition of the
Kiser for Novices on tap Wednesday 7/24.

First a quick recap of Sunday’s race. Whitman’s Poetry clipped heals with Markhan after the 5th fence. This slowed Markhan down and effectively took him out of the race. Repeat Repeat went to the front as expected and Cite got first run down the backstretch the final time. Leading steeplechase trainer Jack Fisher wins again. Had the correct race shape, and Fisher took advantage of the problems encountered by the favorites. Renown has a foot abscess and may reenter for 7/31 race if healed.

The Kiser has a nice balance of front end runners, stalkers, off pace closers and Euros making their first US start. With 4 front runners, the pace will be fast. #10 Belisarius is expected to scratch and run Thursday in the Smithwick.

After looking at all the runners, here are the significant angles. Flat track speed is important since there are only 8 jumps. The NSA rating system has tried to parallel the Euro rating system and has had some success meaning that 142 or 141 rating in Europe is the same as a 142 or 141 rating in the US. Leading trainer Jack Fisher’s 3 runners have to be considered. Trainer Sheppard is 2nd in races and money won this year.

#1 Redicean, #2 Help From Heaven, #3Boss Man, #4 Storm Team, #6 Lord Justice, #10 Belisarius have the best flat track speed with #3 Boss Man, #4 Storm Team the speed of the speed. From the NSA/Euro rating system, #11 Arch My Boy (142) has the highest rating, #1 Redicean (141) is next and the highest US runner is #10 Belisarius (132). After that #6 Lord Justice (128) is next then #3 Boss Man(125) and the rest are between 123 – 121. Trainer Fisher has #4 Storm Team, #6 Lord Justice, #8 Our Legend and Sheppard has #9 Sportswear.

Race shape will have #3 Boss Man and #4 Storm Team going quick early resulting in a strung out line the first time down the backstretch. #2 Help From Heaven #5 Corkey Lemon, #6 Lord Justice, #8 Our Legend, #9 Sportswear #10 Belisarius will be in the stalking group and #1 Redicean will lead the closers. Saving ground on the turns and getting first run the final time down the backstretch will be key to victory. #3 Boss Man may still be in front over the last fence but #1 Redicean, #2 Help From Heaven, #6 Lord Justice #9 Sportswear, #10 Belisarius #11 Arch My Boy will stack up for the first run on the backstretch the final time and will continue to make strong runs on the final turn.

As a result, half the field has a chance to win.

I’ll go with #1 Redicean, #2 Help From Heaven #6 Lord Justice, #9 Sportswear as my top picks (A) and #10 Belisarius and #11 Arch My Boy (B).

Good Luck!

[Flatterer]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

Excellent job!

Thank you!

Race shape came out just as expected.....2 for 2 on race shape.....keep posted for the Smithwick Thursday!

[knickslions2]

Nice work as usual!!