7/25: Saratoga Steeplechase Smithwick Race 1

[Flatterer]

A full field including 3 Europen runners making their US debut highlight the Grade I A. P. Smithwick Handicap.

The NSA and European rating systems were in harmony as designed based on the results in the Kiser Novice Wednesday. The top rated Euros were much the best. So let us breakout the ratings and assigned handicap weights and identify any discrepancies.

Horse number and name Rating Weight
#9 Bedrock 157 154
#6 Vosnee Romanee 151 150
#7 Modem 142 148
#4 Sempre Medici 140 146
#3 Winston C 136 144
#2 Peppay Le Pugh 135 144
#12 Gibralifaro 134 144
#11 All the Way Jose 133 144
#10 Belisarius 132 144
#5 Show Court 126 142
#8 No Wunder 126 142
#1 Hinterland 125 142
#13 Portrade 124 142

This information is very revealing. The goal of assigning different weights is to make the runners close together at the finish. Using the guide that 1 pound is equal to 1 length when traveling more than 2 miles, both #9 Bedrock and #6 Vosnee Romanee should be carrying at least 6 or 7 more pounds. The runners assigned 142 – 144 pounds should be carrying at least 6 or 7 less pounds to be competitive. As a result, the 2 highest rated runners are getting a huge advantage (7-14 lengths) with their weight assignments.

Leading trainer Jack Fisher is sending out 4 runners and Sheppard has 2 runners. The horses that have displayed some flat track speed are #3 Winston C, #8 No Wunder, #9 Bedrock, #10 Belisarius.

The race will have an early moderate pace with #5 Show Court and #4 Sempre Medici leading the way followed closely by #7 Modem, #8 No Wunder, #11 All the Way Jose, #12 Gibralfaro. There won’t be much change the first lap and then the fireworks start. #2 Peppay Le Pugh, #3 Winston C, #6 Vosnee Romanee, #9 Bedrock and #10 Belisarius all vie for position on the clubhouse turn and the final backstretch run. I would not be surprised if someone is pushed off course running inside a flag. #9 Bedrock and #6 Vosnee Romanee will prevail with #3 Winston C and #2 Peppay Le Pugh close up.

The selections are #9 Bedrock and #6 Vosnee Romanee on top with #3 Winston C and #2 Peppay Le Pugh and #12 Gibralfaro underneath.

Good Luck!