5/2: Oaklawn ~ Arkansas Derby Day (4th-14th)

[Kasept]

OAKLAWN PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


NOTE: Speed was pronounced Friday to the point of carrying front end horses; Use races 1-5 (4 sprints, 1 route) to gauge conditions before serious multi-race wagering begins with middle P4 (R6-9)..


4th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Major Attraction 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #11 Bank 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #13 Illuminati 20-1 5th ~ (ALT: #5 Quality Warrior 15-1 2nd)
Exotics Use: #9 Uncle Addouma 4-1 4th


5th: Opt CLM/C, 4+. 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Bankit 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #11 Endorsed 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #8 Two Thirty Five 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #12 Pirates Punch 3-1 3rd


6th: MSW, 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Friar's Road 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Ring of Fire 10-1 11th
Next Best: #5 Hunt the Front 4-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #6 What a Country 10-1 6th


7th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Highly anticipated 2nd start of Gamine, but note that Ain't No Elmers draws in and Speech is solid. Was using Black Kat Taps yesterday but she SCR'd for this spot. Not a win candidate, but value underneath circling back to a good effort while reunited with BJ Hernandez..

Most Likely: #8 Gamine 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #13 Ain't No Elmers 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Black Kat Taps 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Speech 2-1 2nd


8th: ALW/N$Y, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Fra Mauro 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Benintendi 8-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Don Vito Corleone 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Moretti 5-2 WON ($7.40)


9th: OC/N$Y, 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Rotation 9-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Popular Kid 4-1 10th
Exotics Use: #3 Fearless 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Always 8-1 6th


P4 Grid:

6: 4-7 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
7: 8-13 (A), - (B), 10 (C)
8: 1-5-7 (A), 8-10 (B), - (C)
9: 1-3-7 (A), - (B), 2-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


10th: OC/N$Y, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Tricky read about pace with Ginobili stretching out and certainly first on to the backstretch with other alleged pace players having 'route' speed. Track played kindly to front end types Friday..

Most Likely: #11 Rushie 5-2 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #10 Prodigous Bay 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Ginobili 7-2 -
Exotics Use: #12 Background 15-1 3rd


11th: Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Charlatan was a heavy favorite even prospect for pace pressure came out. Expect Anneau d'Or runs better today reunited with JJ Hernandez.

Most Likely: #1 Charlatan 1-1 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #8 Anneau d'Or 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Gouverneur Morris 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Winning Impression 15-1 4th


12th: Oaklawn H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P3, DD)

With the speeds inside, Improbable SCR'D stands to sit a comfortable 3rd-4th on to the backstretch. Return race was terrific and while he won't be 8-1, will still be a square enough number given the deep cast. Fascinating lineup with at least half eligible for laurels..

Best Value: #2 Trophy Chaser 12-1 13th
Next Best: #9 Tacitus 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Combatant 4-1 10th
Super Add: #4 Mr Freeze 6-1 3rd


13th: Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Nadal 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Next Best: #4 King Guillermo 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Storm the Court 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Farmington Road 12-1 4th


14th: 'Trail's End' S/ALW, 3+, 14f

Most Likely: #5 Carlos Sixes 4-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Take Charge d'Oro 10-1 WON ($39.60)
Next Best: #7 Wickett's Way 8-1 12th
Exotics Use: #14 River Echo 8-1 2nd


P5 Grid:

10: 2-10-11 (A), 4-7-12 (B), - (C)
11: 1 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C)
12: 2-4-6-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 4-5 (A), - (B), 3-10 (C)
14: 5 (A), 9 (B), 1-7-14 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x5x2x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x1x5x2x1 = 30 x .50 = $15


P4 Grid:

11: 1 (A), 4-8 (B), - (C)
12: 2-4-6-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 4-5 (A), - (B), 3-10 (C)
14: 1-5-7-9-14 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75
All A's: 1x5x2x5 = 50 x .50 = $25


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

OP SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Improbable out of Handicap..

[knickslions2]

Trophy Chaser has a big shot here. Good luck Steve

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Trophy Chaser has a big shot here. Good luck Steve

I have to throw a couple of dollars on Chess Chief....Dallas always seems to run big in these shows....probably doesn't win but I bet he will be coming, plus BJ is in the irons

[myke]

Thank you Steve for your time and handicapping knowledge. I was able to hit the pick 4 and pick 5 . what made the sequence is your horse Take Charge D'oro paying 39.60.

[Alabama Stakes]

What he said ^

[moses]

Awesome work Steve.

[Kasept]

Myke, Bam, Moishe..

Thanks. Pleased to hear of the multi hits and those that got out in the season-ender. Fun to have a card like this on 'Derby Day'. Sorry to miss By My Standards, but I lost the feel for the race when Improbable came out.

Hope everyone did well. Stunning $41,000,000 bet on OP yesterday..

Looks like a quiet week before things start to gear up mid-month. Stay safe all..

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Myke, Bam, Moishe..

Thanks. Pleased to hear of the multi hits and those that got out in the season-ender. Fun to have a card like this on 'Derby Day'. Sorry to miss By My Standards, but I lost the feel for the race when Improbable came out.

Hope everyone did well. Stunning $41,000,000 bet on OP yesterday..

Looks like a quiet week before things start to gear up mid-month. Stay safe all..

The only "normalcy" the past 49 days has been the opportunity to STILL wager on tracks like; Oaklawn, Gulfstream, Tampa and even Fonner & Will Rogers I'm so glad to see those little tracks like the two later have a chance to take advantage as they are "only game in town" while this is going on. Glad to see the Churchill has set a date and hopefully NYRA will get in gear soon ..... once they get the ok from the "man in charge" here in N.Y. state.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

The only "normalcy" the past 49 days has been the opportunity to STILL wager on tracks like; Oaklawn, Gulfstream, Tampa and even Fonner & Will Rogers I'm so glad to see those little tracks like the two later have a chance to take advantage as they are "only game in town" while this is going on. Glad to see the Churchill has set a date and hopefully NYRA will get in gear soon ..... once they get the ok from the "man in charge" here in N.Y. state.

The Man in Charge here in NY State is doing the thinking for those too myopic and ignorant to think for themselves.

[Kasept]

Since it's a quiet Sunday after a big Saturday and the topic of getting everything 'back to normal' came up, I recommend reading this TNR piece from University of Oregon prof Joe Lowndes..

The Morbid Ideology Behind the Drive to Reopen America

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The Man in Charge here in NY State is doing the thinking for those too myopic and ignorant to think for themselves.

That your opinion everything he's doing is a power grab most right minded people can see through. If he had it his way, racing would be DONE in N.Y. Some are quick to hate on certain leaders and give other ones a pass It's pretty obvious here.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

That your opinion everything he's doing is a power grab most right minded people can see through. If he had it his way, racing would be DONE in N.Y. Some are quick to hate on certain leaders and give other ones a pass It's pretty obvious here.

The same right minded people that voted a reality show host for president?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The Man in Charge here in NY State is doing the thinking for those too myopic and ignorant to think for themselves.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

That your opinion everything he's doing is a power grab most right minded people can see through. If he had it his way, racing would be DONE in N.Y. Some are quick to hate on certain leaders and give other ones a pass It's pretty obvious here.

You’re going to equate the actions of Gov. Cuomo to protect the health of the citizens of NY to the pathetic, incompetent embarrassment that left the country defenseless in the face of this pandemic, has effectively destroyed the International standing of America and largely imperiled the viability of the republic in countless ways? Priceless.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

That your opinion everything he's doing is a power grab most right minded people can see through. If he had it his way, racing would be DONE in N.Y. Some are quick to hate on certain leaders and give other ones a pass It's pretty obvious here.

No worries, man.

When somebody is President of the United States, the authority is total. And that’s the way it’s gotta be. It’s total.

Power grabs by anyone else are just not right minded.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by Kasept

You’re going to equate the actions of Gov. Cuomo to protect the health of the citizens of NY to the pathetic, incompetent embarrassment that left the country defenseless in the face of this pandemic, has effectively destroyed the International standing of America and largely imperiled the viability of the republic in countless ways? Priceless.

Lot of HATE there, boss but it doesn't surprise me ...... control that anger, it's unbecoming of a man like you with so much stature Just remember that you give for the mad man in Albany when HE destroys YOUR sport ...... and livelihood SAD

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Lot of HATE there, boss but it doesn't surprise me ...... control that anger, it's unbecoming of a man like you with so much stature Just remember that you give for the mad man in Albany when HE destroys YOUR sport ...... and livelihood SAD

There's not an ounce of hate there, just disdain for those who've likely done irreparable damage to this country with their gleeful ignorance, fraudulent patriotism and unbridled greed.

The sport isn't going to be destroyed by the state or governor and I wouldn't worry about my stature. I'm hopeful that it's enhanced by standing up for what America is supposed to be and giving a voice to those that are being marginalized.

[Dahoss]

Wait you mean those people shouting MAGA and KAG aren’t real patriots? They say they are. Weird....

I suppose next you’ll tell me ingesting disinfectant is a bad idea. Say it ain’t so!