Friday, 6/5: Nick Tammaro's Belmont Analysis presented by RTN

[Kasept]

BELMONT – 6/5/2020

Race 1 - 1st #8 HIZAAM; 2ND #3 WALKOFF; 3RD #2 GRIT AND GLORY

#8 HIZAAM was taken by shrewd claiming connections last time out and now drops a notch in class. Trainer
Carlos Martin is 19% with dirt routers first off of claims ($2.69 ROI) and this son of Bernardini is in line to
capitalize on a strong early pace in here. This is the right spot class-wise as well. #3 WALKOFF is another
dropping in class, as this one plunges down the claiming ladder second off a claim by Brad Cox. He probably
wishes he had this claim back, as this son of Street Sense showed nothing last time out for 50k. This is the
right spot for him and he can be in position to get the jump on late runners like the top pick. #2 GRIT AND
GLORY was taken for 30k last time out at Gulfstream and drops as well. Todd Pletcher is not active at the
claim box, but owner Mike Repole never forgets his roots. This gelding should be in an ideal spot to stalk and
pounce as the likely favorite.

Race 2 - 1st #7 TILTINGATWINDMILLS; 2ND #6 PETALITE; 3RD #10 ALLEY TO CALVARY

#7 TILTINGATWINDMILLS drops in for a tag after getting into some traffic trouble when beaten as the 9/5
favorite last time out. She was hardly unlucky that day, but didn’t really get a fair chance to show her ability.
This is a realistic spot class-wise and she is certainly priced to move. Expect her to clear the N2L ranks at
short odds. #6 PETALITE returns to turf today after breaking her maiden on the dirt two back. She was
effective on the weeds last year and runs into a group today that is weak outside of the top pick. Her versatility
is a plus and she will be a square price as well. #10 ALLEY TO CALVARY drew poorly but has an aggressive
pilot up. That’ll help her overcome this poor draw, as she should have some zip right from the outset. Her lack
of willingness to win is a worry, but she is a player for a minor share here.

Race 3 - 1st #9 SCARF IT DOWN; 2ND #11 HARDCORE FOLKLORE; 3 RD #1A THE FORTY FACTOR

#9 SCARF IT DOWN drops in class second off a layoff for Orlando Noda after diving to the rail last time out at
Churchill Downs. That was not the best place to be that afternoon, and this son of Twirling Candy didn’t get
much pace help in that affair. He is a late threat today and will be a square price. #11 HARDCORE
FOLKLORE is taking a massive drop in class for trainer Gary Gullo after two respectable efforts against starter
allowance foes at Aqueduct. He has improved since being taken for 25k in February and is another in line to
benefit if the pace heats up today. This barn scored a blowout win on opening day with Business Cycle. #1A
THE FORTY FACTOR is the main speed should he be the half of the Rudy Rodriguez-trained entry to stay in
the field. He goes 2 nd off a claim following a dull effort where he drifted off the stronger inside paths late while
tiring. This gelding’s speed, coupled with the weight break courtesy of the bug boy make him a threat.
Race 4- 1 st #14 WINNERS LAUGH 2 ND #12 MR. BUCKLEY 3 RD #7 BLACKJACK DAVEY
#14 WINNERS LAUGH is a firster by Broken Vow, whose progeny win at a 10% clip. This colt is out of a
stakes winning dam who produced stake winner Amundson, a major contender in the 6 th race today. This colt
drew favorably given he can stay clear of trouble out of the gate and there is massive speed in his pedigree.
#12 MR. BUCKLEY was a good second on debut and spent most of that race 3-4 paths off the rail on a day
where the inside paths were best. He figures to improve with that race behind him and it won’t take much
more than that to win here. #7 BLACKJACK DAVEY is another well-bred firster, as this son of Posse is a
half-brother of NY bred stake winner Blindwillie McTell. The dam here was stakes placed as a 2YO, so there’s
reason to believe this guy can be effective early in his career.

Race 5 - 1st #11 BASIE; 2ND #4 IDLE TIME; 3RD #9 MONKEYSEEMONKEYDO

#11 BASIE got into some traffic trouble last time out against slightly tougher and is spotted realistically today
by the circuit’s top stable. He was caught in a tight spot when the running started last time out and can be
positioned a bit more forwardly early today, which will help given his steady, grinding style. #4 IDLE TIME
drops in for a tag for trainer Christophe Clement and is another who got into some issues traffic-wise last time
out. This barn has average numbers with maidens dropping in for tags going long on the turf in NY, but his first
two efforts make him a contender in a wide-open tilt. #9 MONKEYSEEMONKEYDO goes 2 nd off a claim for
trainer Mike Maker and has past turf races that are good enough to win this thing. He has tactical speed that’ll
keep him close early and he signaled his readiness with a bullet drill here last week.

Race 6 - 1st #7 INSTAGRAND; 2ND #4 AMUNDSON; 3RD #6 THE RIGHT PATH

Had #7 INSTAGRAND stayed sprinting his whole career, things may look very different. Instead, he was
stretched out on multiple occasions, clearly to his detriment. He now cuts back off a trainer change to Chad
Brown and returns from a 100+ day break. Brown is 7 for his last 14 with dirt sprinters that are new to his barn
($3.96 ROI) and this son of Into Mischief has drawn an ideal outside post position in a race packed with speed.
#4 AMUNDSON could potentially be the speed of the speed as he exits an impressive gate-to-wire tour de
force in the Hollie Hughes. This son of Curlin was last seen here at Belmont winning a NY bred N2X in
impressive fashion and has a first step out of the gate that makes him a threat to wire this bunch again. #6
THE RIGHT PATH would have to improve a great deal to win this event, but is a horse worth including
underneath in exotic bets. He should have been sprinting his whole career, and he figures to get a monstrous
pace to run at late today. This barn scored an opening day win and spots its horses very wisely.

Race 7 - 1st #2 STRETCHTHESTORY; 2ND #3 AMOS; 3RD #10 TIME LIMIT

With a plethora of pace signed up, #2 STRETCHTHESTORY appears to be in a prime spot drawn inside for
Christophe Clement. This daughter of Lookin at Lucky broke his maiden at this 6 furlong trip late last year and
Clement trainees coming off 180+ day breaks in turf sprints win at a 32% clip ($2.04 ROI). The contentious
nature of this race will make this gal a fair price at the windows. #3 AMOS is a player at a price for Mike Miceli,
who does exceptionally well with turf sprinters. This filly ran two races on turf last year that are far better than
they look on paper. The increased speed she’s shown since the barn switch will actually help on the cutback
in distance. #10 TIME LIMIT nearly pulled off a serious upset in her turf debut before getting run down by
Alms, who promptly won two stakes long on the grass following that Matron score. This filly has been involved
in hot paces on multiple occasions in the past and has paid the price for that, but is now amongst the main
speeds going a trip where early foot is an asset.

Race 8 - 1st #8 VOTING AGREEMENT; 2ND #4 BREDENBURY; 3RD #1 CATCH A THRILL

Quite simply, the debut effort from #8 VOTING AGREEMENT would win this event. She roared home at 3-1
that afternoon despite breaking slowly and beat a field that included next-out winner Indochine. She is back at
a distance that should suit her quite well and the field she’s facing here is weak for a Belmont N1X sprinting on
the lawn. #4 BREDENBURY cuts back in distance off a strong effort in a N1X at Tampa in early February.
The winner of that race, Outburst, came right back to win the Florida Oaks a month later, and this gal was likely
going a bit farther than she prefers that day. Trainer Graham Motion scored an opening day win here to
continue the roll that began at Churchill for his elite stable. #1 CATCH A THRILL looms the biggest threat to
the top pick but will offer little value based on dressed up running lines. She was never a threat for top honors
last time but is likely a hores who’ll improve with extra ground. Should the pace heat up early, she’ll be in line
to benefit.

Race 9 - 1st #9 MOTHER MOTHER; 2ND #8 CHALON; 3RD #4 ROYAL CHARLOTTE

#9 MOTHER MOTHER ships east for Bob Baffert, who has been on a three-year tear in stakes races in NY.
This daughter of Pioneerof the Nile got into early trouble last time out before spending some time on the
deeper inside paths late in the game. She’ll be re-united with Joel Rosario, with whom she won the Kalookan
Queen back in January and should get an ideal stalking trip on the outside. #8 CHALON is back from a layoff
for trainer Arnaud Delacour as she looks to get back to her stronger efforts in 2019. This mare has long been
a top notch sprinter and her dull TCA last time can be attributed to a white-hot pace in that affair. She ran
winning races in both the Bed O’Roses and Honorable Miss last year and fits this race like a glove. #4 ROYAL
CHARLOTTE stepped up in a big way when victorious in the Prioress last year before faltering in the Raven
Run. She’s now back from a lengthy layoff while facing largely stronger competition than she did at any point
last year. There’s often clear improvement in horses as they age, and this gal certainly hinted at having
graded stakes caliber potential last year.

Race 10 - 1st #9 UNCLE GEORGE; 2ND #6 COMPLEX SYSTEM; 3RD #2 CARIBBEAN GOLD

#9 UNCLE GEORGE offers the most appeal as a debuting runner from the high percentage stable of
Christophe Clement. He is a half to a couple of turf winners, including Epping Forest, a winner of 6 races for
this barn. This colt is training forwardly and needn’t be much to contend for win honors today. #6 COMPLEX
SYSTEM set a soft pace last time out before tiring late going a mile. The cutback in distance is likely going to
help his chances, but this high flying barn hardly excels with turf sprinters. He ran a good race on debut
sprinting and will likely be favored given Brown tallied two wins on the opening day card and annually excels at
Belmont. #2 CARIBBEAN GOLD rallied at 5 furlongs last time and now gets added real estate. He clearly
benefited from the cutback in distance last time and should save ground from the start. Being forwardly placed
in turf sprints is ideal and he should be given he was within range early last time out.