Thursday, 6/10: Nick Tammaro's Belmont Analysis presented by RTN

[Kasept]

BELMONT – 6/11/2020

Race 1- 1 st #3 TRI SAINT LORENZO 2 ND #4 INK SPLOTZ 3 RD #8 EAGLES PALACE

#3 TRI SAINT LORENZO gets the nod in a mind-scrambling opener. He takes the biggest class drop in racing
after laying back off a strong pace and showing late interest when last seen in March. His style fits this race
well with a strong pace guaranteed courtesy of #4 INK SPLOTZ. That son of Overanalyze makes his second
start way from the SGF-1000 haven that was the barn of Mike Tannuzzo. He is quick enough to get well clear
in this field and that might be enough to help him go the distance. #8 EAGLES PALACE makes his first dirt
start for a tag and had some issues out of the gate in his two Saratoga tries last year. This is the right spot for
him class-wise and his recent turf efforts as a 3YO have shown marked improvement.

Race 2- 1 st #3 VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD 2ND #4 WHO’S IN CHARGE 3RD #7 BLACKTOP LEGEND

#3 VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD moves up the class ladder off a big effort against 35k sellers at the Big A. He
made the first move into a collapsing pace that day and wound up a game second. Winning hasn’t really been
his thing, but he fits this race from class and pace perspectives. #4 WHO’S IN CHARGE is the one to catch as
he moves up a condition off an easy win in Ozone Park. This son of Take Charge Indy showed signs of ability
early in his career and has new life in the high percentage barn of Danny Gargan. Look for him to try to take it
to them early. #7 BLACKTOP LEGEND scored consecutive wins late last year, the second of which came
against significantly tougher than he’ll meet today. The outside draw should afford the woeful Dylan Davis an
opportunity to stalk and pounce and this gelding has been a good fit for him in the past.

Race 3- 1 st #7 DR. DEVERA’S WAY 2 ND #2 FUTURE BOOK 3 RD #1 VENTUS

#7 DR. DEVERA’S WAY cuts back in distance off a strong effort against similar at a mile. This son of
Alternation moves up significantly on a wet track, and the forecast is for rain this afternoon. If his last
foreshadows a corner turned, then this is the right spot to take a chance in a race that offers few attractive
participants. #2 FUTURE BOOK only has one way to go from this inside post and should be on the engine
from the start. While it’s really not leading jockey Irad Ortiz’s style to “run and gun” this colt has knows no
other way and is quick enough to get clear. If he does, he might forget to quit. #1 VENTUS comes back on
short rest off the claim by AC Avila. This is an outfit that does well with new arrivals to its barn, and this
ownership group has been known to pull off a surprising win or two in the claiming ranks.

Race 4- 1 st #4 UNCLE MOONLIGHT 2 ND #7 COUSIN ANDREW 3 RD #2 OWNITIFYOUWANTIT

There are three legitimate win candidates in this bunch, but #4 UNCLE MOONLIGHT is the most interesting
participant as he debuts for Michelle Nevin. This well-bred son of Uncle Mo is clearly training well and is out of
the multiple stakes winning mare By the Light. That makes him a half to multiple graded stake winner By the
Moon. While this is a tough assignment for a debuting runner, you’ll get value here and the sky’s the limit with
this one. #7 COUSIN ANDREW is the one to beat on paper as he exits a game runner-up finish at this level
That race featured a field that was packed together from the start, as no one showed any interest in taking the
front end through the opening half-mile. That likely worked against this son of Into Mischief, as the eventual
winner swooped around the field on the far turn. He gets a massive upgrade at pilot as the likely favorite. #2
OWNITIFYOUWANTIT looked to be on his way to victory last time before getting tagged on the wire. He
showed increased speed that day on the stretchout and figures to be prominent early once again with an inside
post and an aggressive pilot.

Race 5- 1 ST #4 KANSAS KIS 2 ND #5 SPICE IS NICE 3 RD #3 ALANDRA

#4 KANSAS KIS drops in class off a couple of stakes tries, the first of which nearly landed her on the Kentucky
Oaks trail. The big question mark with this daughter of the streaking Constitution is the distance, as she
noticeable shortened stride late in the Busher. The thought is that can be chalked up to a premature move and
that she’ll get the trip easier today on the front end. #5 SPICE IS NICE was surely not purchased to be in a
N1X in her fourth start, but this ownership group shelling out massive sums for underachievers is nothing new.
After an auspicious debut, this well-bred filly has faltered and now seeks redemption in a much softer spot.
Her inability to get early position in a slow-paced race last time hurt, so a more aggressive ride today from
Johnny Velazquez will definitely help. #3 ALANDRA turned into the ultimate mirage after a wire-to-wire win on
debut for one of the nation’s most beloved trainers. She has created her own problems on multiple occasions
since, but now gets blinkers and extra ground. It’s unclear to me whether she wants 8.5fs, but there’s clearly
talent here and the shades can only sharpen her early. That’s a good thing.

Race 6- 1 st #8 MERLIN’S MUSE 2 ND #11 TELETYPE 3 RD #9 TERPEYE

#8 MERLIN’S MUSE returns off a layoff as the clear choice should this race remain on the grass. She has
competed well against tougher and lands in a great spot class-wise for a barn that scored two opening week
wins. David Donk is 13% with turfers off 180+ day breaks ($2.06 ROI) and this mare has the tactical zip to
stay close should the pace fail to develop. #11 TELETYPE is one of the main pace players as she returns to
the grass for new trainer AC Avila. This filly broke her maiden on the lawn at Saratoga, so the ability is there
and the weight allowance courtesy of Luis Cardenas being on board is a positive. #9 TERPEYE has loads of
turf pedigree being out of 6x grass winner No Acronyms. This barn is not known for it’s turf prowess, but the
numbers are good enough to include her on a Pick 5 ticket at a price. OFF THE TURF: 1-12-9-3

Race 7- 1 st #4 CHESTERTOWN 2 ND #7 YANKEE DIVISION 3 RD #3 DANNY CALIFORNIA

#4 CHESTERTOWN will be a horribly over bet favorite today for trainer Steve Asmussen. Between him being
on the Derby trail and having a flashy pedigree that helped his connections go to $2 million for him, he has
always been more about sizzle than steak. However, this is a far more realistic spot than the last three he’s
been entered in, and he didn’t have the best of trips in the Louisiana Derby. Being re-united with the pilot who
was aboard for his maiden score helps as well. #7 YANKEE DIVISION ran a hole in the wind last time out as
he stayed to the very end after contesting a pace that was absolutely super-sonic. He is dangerous when able
to get clear, and he’ll have to fend off a few rivals to his inside in the opening stages. If he duplicates his last
he can definitely win this at a price. #3 DANNY CALIFORNIA is back in the NY bred ranks after four tries
against open company. The latest of those came at Churchill where he was a listless 6 th at 5/2 against open
N1X foes. This is a massive drop and he’s in line to capitalize if ‘Yankee hooks up early with the two rivals tot
his gelding’s inside.

Race 8- 1 st #7 MR. ALEC 2 ND #10 TIDE OF THE SEA 3 RD #4 VALUE ENGINEERING

#7 MR. ALEC returns off a break for trainer Christophe Clement after ending his 2019 campaign in style. He
wound up a neck shy of eventual graded stake winner Cross Border, as this son of Mr. Sidney battled from the
outset that afternoon going 11 panels. His versatility is a major plus as he can be positioned forwardly in a
race that’s short on confirmed speed. #10 TIDE OF THE SEA is the likeliest to be forwardly placed as he
changes barns after being purchased privately. This son of English Channel is typical of a Bill Mott trainee, as
he sohwed great potential only to flop when expected to win. If his rider is given strict instructions to go to the
front early, this colt will be VERY dangerous. #4 VALUE ENGINEERING was bested by veteran Hoboe last
time out when this 3YO faced winners for the first time. Clearly a long-winded sort, he is going to be at his best
at 10 panels and beyond. Trainer Chad Brown had a great start to the meet and does quite well with layoff
returnees, so expect another solid effort here.

Race 9- 1 st #4 SIR WINSTON 2 ND #9 ADVENTIST 3 RD #3 MORETTI

Whether he did so because of a dream trip largely along a gold rail, #4 SIR WINSTON is the horse to beat in
his first start at Belmont since he won the third leg of the Triple Crown last year. This long-striding son of
Awesome Again made his 2020 debut at Aqueduct and won stylishly from well off a slow pace going a mile.
That’s usually the minimum this colt needs to get his motor cranked and today’s trip should suit him perfectly.
#9 ADVENTIST is a late runner who will appreciate the return to a marathon trip. He won the Greenwood Cup
handily last year at 50-1 and was in top form before the COVID-induced break in racing. His style is less than
ideal for 12 panels, but those steady, long strides make him a major late threat. #3 MORETTI is the one to
catch as he moves significantly up in class off a win against a horrific field at Oaklawn. This son of Medaglia
d’Oro is not going to offer value given the number of people set to bet on him to wire the field. That is a
possibility, but he looks more like a bit player.

Race 10- 1 st #2 MOPOLKA 2 ND #10 CENTRAL CAPITAL 3 RD #3 STUY TOWN BABY

Hold your nose and bet the nightcap as #2 MOPOLKA makes a surface switch for trainer Carlos Martin. This
filly received some support at the windows on debut and is out of a 3x turf winning dam. Progeny of Uncle Mo
win their turf debuts at a rate of 15%, so there’s plenty to like. #10 CENTRAL CAPITAL is by 8% turf sire
Central Banker but has two siblings who’ve won on the lawn. This filly is another getting serious class relief
and her connections couldn’t have dreamt the 40k field would be this short on turf form. #3 STUY TOWN
BABY ran very well in her turf debut late last year at Aqueduct. She made a bold move into a collapsing pace
after breaking very poorly and clearly benefits from moving back to the lawn here. Expect her to be prominent
early with a cleaner break from the gate.

BELMONT MEET STATS: 50-12-4-9 $78.50