Sunday, 6/28: Nick Tammaro's Belmont Analysis presented by RTN

[Kasept]

BELMONT – 6/27/2020

Race 1- 1 st #5 LIQUOR 2 ND #3 AFTER PROM PARTY 3 RD #7 TRUE GRACE

#5 LIQUOR cuts back in distance while taking the biggest class drop in racing. In light with the double bug
aboard, this son of Tonalist exits a 3 rd place finish where he spent the majority of the race on a dead rail. If the
pace that figures to be set by #3 AFTER PROM PARTY heats up, then he’ll benefit. ‘Party returns from a
break and was scratched from a turf sprint here a couple of weeks ago. He is a new gelding and looms the
one to catch for a barn that is more than capable. #7 TRUE GRACE is a favorite worth betting against given
that he doesn’t look like a horse who’ll prefer shorter distances. Trainer Christophe Clement is just 1 for 22
over the last 5 years with dirt sprinters off 180+ day breaks ($0.40 ROI).

Race 2- 1 st #3 MONEYMEISTER 2 ND #7 BUSINESS CYCLE 3 RD #1 DEEP SEA

It could be a Jimmy Ferraro double if #3 MONEYMEISTER can get the job done. No match for #7 BUSINESS
CYCLE last time, this son of Bodemeister was within range of a demanding pace that ultimately collapsed late.
The third place finisher that day has since returned to win, and this gelding gets a massive rider change today.
The aforementioned Business Cycle is clearly the horse to beat as he moves up a notch in class following a
win for the waiver. He’s a late runner who needs some pace help and there’s precious little early speed in
here. That’s enough to take a small shot against him. #1 DEEP SEA rallied gamely for the place dough last
time out against a salty bunch of 16k sellers at Churchill. He’s another who figures to be compromised here by
the expected pace, but his best races would win this thing comfortably.

Race 3- 1 st #4 XANTHIQUE 2 ND #1 JAZZIQUE 3 RD #7 HOTSY TOTSY

#4 XANTHIQUE has performed admirably against much tougher competition in the past and figures to be very
dangerous if forwardly placed early today. The 1-2 finishers from her October tilt in Lexington are stakes
caliber and the rival who bested her last time should have some black-type to her name soon. Expect this gal
to get control early and never look back. #1 JAZZIQUE was up in time to break her maiden at first asking
sprinting then came up short late in the Miss Grillo to stablemate Selflessly. That was a weaker than par Miss
Grillo and this gal now faces elders off the bench. Leading trainer Chad Brown is 30% with a break-even ROI
when starting turf routers off 180+ day breaks and this gal is a logical win candidate. #7 HOTSY TOTSY was
wide the whole way in her 2020 debut before getting collared late and now goes 2 nd off a layoff. She has room
to move forward off her last and is another who can be within range early if her jockey so chooses.

Race 4- 1 st #6 HURRICANE HILL 2 ND #1 FROSTED ROSE 3 RD #2 PRETERNATURAL

#6 HURRICANE HILL looks miles better than his rivals today as he drops back in for a tag after facing N1X
foes in Florida last time out. He was a game 3 rd two back against tougher and should get some pace to run at
in here as a likely heavy favorite. #1 FROSTED ROSE returns from a layoff after a modest effort against better
foes last time out at Tampa Bay Downs. Shippers from Tampa have fared poorly at this meet and this guy has
yet to show anything formidable on turf, but someone has to run second. #2 PRETERNATURAL will be a
huge price in his turf debut and he has some pedigree to move up on the lawn. He’s kin to 3 winners from 4 to
try it including stakes winner Epping Forest and recent maiden winner Uncle George.



Race 5- 1 ST #4 CALIFORNIA NIGHT 2 ND #7 ARMAMENT 3 RD #6 LIL COMMISSIONER

#4 CALIFORNIA NIGHT is the one to catch as he drops in class after enduring a tough trip here earlier this
month. He was away from the gate horribly that day before making a middle move and flattening out late.
Each of his 5 prior victories came when he made the early lead, so an aggressive ride would help today. #7
ARMAMENT moves back to dirt after losing all chance at the start of his last outing. This veteran is better on
the main track and can show speed today with a cleaner break. #6 LIL COMMISSIONER is new to the barn of
Rob Atras, who broke an 0-14 skid here on Friday. This Florida-bred has faced better recently, and Atras is
24% with dirt starters moving into his care ($2.16 ROI). This is the horse to beat on paper.

Race 6- 1 st #6 FRIDAYBEERS 2 ND #10 CORAGESCONTENDER 3 RD #11 BIELEFELD

#6 FRIDAYBEERS is by Tapizar, a 7% sire first time turf and is out of a dam who won 4x on the weeds. This
gelding looks to be the one to catch and gets blinkers today. The turf courses played to speed on Saturday
and jockey Luis Saez has done very well in the last two weeks riding front-end types. #10
CORAGESCONTENDER made up ground in a slow paced affair last time out and now faces an arguably
weaker field. He hails from a low percentage barn that has had no success on this circuit previously, so you’ll
get a fair price here on a horse that clearly improved on the lawn. #11 BIELEFELD is a second timer who
showed nothing on debut against MSW foes. He takes a big drop today and will wear blinkers in addition to
luring the meet’s top pilot. That’s enough to use him prominently on any P5 tickets.

Race 7- 1 st #3 CARIBA 2 ND #10 HENNI PENNY 3 RD #8 WICKED AMBER

#3 CARIBA clearly improved by leaps and bounds when she moved to turf and her most recent defeat was an
excellent performance. She moved aggressively into a hot pace before being collared late and now cuts back
in distance. Trainer Christophe Clement is 8-27 over the last 5 years cutting back turfers to six panels ($2.31
ROI) and this trip should suit her well. #10 HENNI PENNY flew home courtesy of a big pace setup last time
out to break her maiden and now faces winners for the first time. She has shown ability on the lawn in the past
and figures to get some pace to run at as a live longshot. #8 WICKED AMBER ran in spots last time out and
now gets a big upgrade at pilot. She has been effective sprinting on the lawn throughout her career and will
offer serious value today.

Race 8- 1 st #2 ILCHESTER CHEETAH 2 ND #3 NAKED AVENGER 3 RD #1 CRITICAL VALUE

If #2 ILCHESTER CHEETAH runs back to his performance two starts back, her rivals are in deep trouble. She
was compromised by a poor break from the gate when last seen against open company at Churchill and now
returns to the friendly confines of NY bred company. Look for her to seize command from the start. #3
NAKED AVENGER had a bad run in Florida over the winter but now returns to NY bred company in a spot
where she can rate early to make one late run. She was pressed into stalking duty last time out chasing a
stakes caliber winner and will now be a big price for the third start of her form cycle. #1 CRITICAL VALUE
was the best horse in this division last year courtesy of her big win in the Maid of the Mist. She returns from a
layoff today for a barn that has heated up of late and will benefit if there’s some pace on early. The inside post
is a negative and her worktab is awfully spotty.

Race 9- 1 st #4 GIACOSA 2 ND #6 TWO CENT TOOTSIE 3 RD #11 SAINTE MERE EGLISE

#4 GIACOSA took the worst of it last time out when she broke wide and chased with no cover in a race
dominated on the front end. This trip will suit off the pace types much more and she should be wound tighter
second off the layoff. Any improvement makes her a major player. #6 TWO CENT TOOTSIE is a better turf
horse, so you can throw out her last, and looks to be the one to catch today. She gets a positive rider change
and the combo of Jose Ortiz and Tom Albertrani hooked up for a win here with a Florida shipper one week
ago. #11 SAINTE MERE EGLISE is a second timer coming back from a lengthy break who’ll be badly overbet
today. Trainer Tom Bush is 4 for his last 17 with turf routers off 180+ day breaks, but three of those wins came
at Gulfstream. Bush is having an awful meet but this filly looks to be spotted perfectly today.

BELMONT MEET STATS: 151-31-22-18 $180.90

[moses]

Thanks for posting Steve and good luck Nick.

It seems like everyone loves the #3 Cariba in Race 7...but I think the race should be competitive. Going to toss her from my Pick 3 and hope to get a longer shot there.