8/6: Nick Tammaro’s Saratoga Analysis presented by NYRA Bets

[Kasept]

SARATOGA – 8/6/20
Nick Tammaro ~ @NTamm1215

Race 1- 1st #6 CAUSE I SAID SO 2ND #4 MACHO JACK 3RD #5 WARFRONT FIGHTER

#6 CAUSE I SAID SO is the best alternative to #4 MACHO JACK as the former cuts back in distance and drops in class. Michelle Nevin is 10-37 with cutbacks in claimers on dirt ($2.12 ROI). ‘Jack was in for 40k a couple of weeks ago and has had his price slashed. That’s a negative, as is the presence of other speed in here. He is the horse to beat based on what has been done on the racetrack. #5 WARFRONT FIGHTER was wide on a track where the rail was best last time out, but there’s no denying his usually high percentage trainer is cold as ice at the Spa.

Race 2- 1st #6 JADES GELLY 2ND #2 KEOTA 3RD #4 GRUDGE

#6 JADES GELLY ran the best race last time out contesting an honest pace before taking command in mid-stretch. Though she was outfinished by #2 KEOTA, the nod goes to this daughter of Lea going the shorter trip today. Keota is one of the prime examples of what a cheating fraud like Jason Servis did to turf sprinters. She went to the barn of the best turf trainer in the country and had nothing last time against much weaker. #4 GRUDGE is the one to catch and exits an improved effort where she held the lead to deep stretch. The horses running at her late today are a tougher lot.

Race 3- 1st #2 STAR OF THE WEST 2ND #7 MY SACRED PLACE 3RD #1 NO MORE MIRACLES

#2 STAR OF THE WEST is the one to catch as he takes an enormous drop in class. This son of Flashback was pounded at the windows last time and lost all chance at the start. #7 MY SACRED PLACE changes surfaces and cuts back in distance. He’s racing at the basement level today and it’s unclear whether he’ll ever get back to his best races for Jason Servis. #1 NO MORE MIRACLES was a tad wide last time on a surface where the rail was the place to be. He now returns from a break and should be in position to stalk and pounce.

Race 4- 1st #4 CALCULATED RISKER 2ND #1 DR. SHANE 3RD #2 CATCH A CAB

#4 CALCULATED RISKER broke his maiden on the turf with a 71 Beyer Speed Figure for the recently retired Gary Contessa. If that doesn’t portend turf ability, nothing does, so he gets the nod in a race where the two favorites look beatable. #1 DR. SHANE takes an enormous drop in class off of a series of dull efforts for a normally high percentage trainer that has struggled mightily since racing resumed in June. He is clearly good enough to win and has a cozy inside post, but his price will be much too low. #2 CATCH A CAB is back on short rest after showing little to noting last time out. This field is drastically softer than the one he faced a week ago and this barn is on fire of late.

Race 5- 1ST #7 LOLLYGAG 2ND #6 GUARDIAN MOON 3RD# 1 NIIJI

#7 LOLLYGAG received only light urging on debut when a competitive 4th against open MSW foes at Keeneland. She now moves into NY Bred company and should improve with that race behind her. These connections are more than capable of winning in NY. #6 GUARDIAN MOON is a firster by Declaration of War, whose progeny win their 2YO debuts at a 13% clip. This filly has a big 2nd family turf pedigree and this barn is rolling at the Spa. #1 NIIJI is a daughter of Japan, who is a young sire with limited progeny to race. The dam here was 0-2 on turf but has dropped 3 grass winners. That’s enough to throw her into a Pick 5.



Race 6- 1st #4 WICKED TITLE 2ND #2 GESTURE 3RD #1 LAKE CHICOT

#4 WICKED TITLE goes first off a claim by Linda Rice and she should improve this daughter of Wicked Strong. This gal showed some ability early in her career and most recently rallied well with a pace setup. This group is weak, even for this level, and she has upside. #2 GESTURE is dropping in class again for a barn that is just 1 for its last 20 in the past 30 days ($0.16 ROI). This gal is cutting back and adding blinkers, so she could find herself close to what shapes up as a moderate pace. #1 LAKE CHICOT looks like best of the rest in this bunch as she was wide most recently during a time when inside moves dominated. Look for her to be ridden aggressively today.

Race 7- 1st #3 DYNA PASSER 2ND #4 HUNGRY KITTEN 3RD #8 MIGHTY SCARLETT

#3 DYNA PASSER is the class in this bunch given her stakes background and she is facing weaker than she did when beaten in the River Memories on closing day at Belmont. The edge she has as well is the ability to stay a tad closer early going this elongated trip. #4 HUNGRY KITTEN will excel at this distance given the improvement shown when she got more ground to work with, and she overcame a slow pace to win last time. There’s serious upside here for a barn that does its best work with distance turf types. #8 MIGHTY SCARLETT ran a bang-up race going shorter last time out at Keeneland and is a threat here from just off the pace. Whether 11 furlongs is truly what she wants will be determined today, but you’ll get a square price to find out.

Race 8- 1st #6 JOLTING JOE 2ND #1 FRESCO 3RD #4 TURBO DRIVE

#6 JOLTING JOE is a complete and total cinch on paper if he runs back to any of his prior four turf races. Ironically, he is a maiden and that might move some in other directions, but he is stakes placed and has the perfect running style for this field. #1 FRESCO broke his maiden in a stake race last time out and is now back on short rest for the meet’s leading trainer. She faces males today and can save ground from the outset, which is always important on turf. #4 TURBO DRIVE rallied boldly from well off the pace to win last time out and now returns against tougher. The setup will not be there today, but his best races clearly make him a contender.

Race 9- 1st #5 ELUSIVE RULER 2ND #6 CATORAT 3RD #8 KING’S HUMOR

#5 ELUSIVE RULER is one of the more likely winners of this meet on paper as he drops in class for Ian Wilkes. He has the right rider to stay in stalk and pounce range and will win for fun if he reproduces his last few. #6 CATORAT is a late runner who goes 2nd off a layoff and has run well here at the Spa in the past. His chances improve if the pace heats up. #8 KING’S HUMOR drops in class and has faced drastically tougher throughout his career. He has the speed to be close early and that’s a positive.

SARATOGA MEET STATS: 153-30-27-28 $196.80