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Old 10-03-2020, 06:20 AM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
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Default 10/3: Hi Ho Pimlico! ~ 145th Preakness Day

HI HO PIMLICO


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: Selima, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Juvy gals with similar backdrop as the LRL Futurity later (Turf debuts, stretchouts, etc.)..

Most Likely: #3 Invincible Gal 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Domain Expertise 5-2 7th
Best Value: #1 Fluffy Socks 4-1 WON ($14.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Tic Tic Tic Boom 15-1 3rd


2nd: Gallorette (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Juliet Foxtrot 7-5 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #8 Varenka 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 She'sonthewarpath 7-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Storm the Hill 9-2 5th


3rd: Skipat, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Bronx Beauty 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Never Enough Time 3-1 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Bye Bye J 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Liza Star 3-1 5th


4th: Hilltop, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

As stressed all week and with the boys version (9th-Murphy) later, the day's most interesting wagering opportunities..

Best Value: #3 Caravel 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Vigilantes Way 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Lucky Jingle 20-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Secret Time 10-1 5th


5th: Miss Preakness (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Mundaye Call 7-5 4th
Best Value: #6 Ankle Monitor 20-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Ain't No Elmers 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Wicked Whisper 9-2 WON ($12.60)


P5 Grid:

1: 1-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 1-8 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
3: 6 (A), 3 (B), - (C)
4: 3-7 (A), - (B), 6-10-11 (C)
5: 1-5-6 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x1x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $39 ~ 3x2x1x3x3 = 54 x .50 = $27 + 3x2x1x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

2: 1-8 (A), 3-6 (B), - (C)
3: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 3-7-11 (A), 5-6-10 (B), - (C)
5: 1-5-6 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x6x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup: 2x2x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (1-8/1-6/3-7-9/2-3)


6th: Dinner Party (G2), 3+, 8.5f-T (.20 Rainbow P6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Factor This 1-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #5 Irish Strait 8-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Hembree 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 O Dionysis 30-1 6th


7th: DeFrancis Dash (G3), 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Landeskog 5-2 6th
Next Best: #1 Admiral Lynch 7-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Eastern Bay 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Laki 6-1 WON ($16.40)


Middle P4 Grid:

4: 3-7-11 (A), 5-6-10 (B), - (C)
5: 1-5-6 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)
6: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 1-5 (A), - (B), 3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x3x1x2 = 36 x $1.50 = $54 ($18 for each .50)
All A's: 3x3x1x2 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backups: $21 ~ 3x2x1x2 = $12 (3-7-9/2-3/7/1-5) + 3x3x1x1 (3-7-9/1-5-6/7/3) = $9


8th: Laurel Futurity, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Vastly historic event and a potential black hole for multi wagers with the myriad of options complicated by 3 first turf entrants, a first North America (from 26% with imports Motion), stretouts, etc. For me, 1-3-4-5-6-8 demand degrees of coverage and that still leaves us vulnerable to Cox (10) & Maker (7)..

Most Likely: #1 Pivotal Mission 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Kidnapped 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Hidden Enemy 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Wooton Asset 9-2 2nd


9th: James W. Murphy, 3yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Reconvene 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Don Juan Kitten 9-2 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #13 Bye Bye Melvin 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Monday Morning Qb 8-1 11th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Vanzzy 8-1 4th


10th: Black-Eyed Susan (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (DD)

Best Value: #1 Project Whiskey 15-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Bonny South 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Hopeful Growth 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Mizzen Beau 12-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #9 Miss Marissa 12-1 WON ($22.20)


11th: Preakness, 3yo, 9.5f (Hi-5)

Based on Friday advance wagering, Art Collector is going to draw a lot of money keeping Authentic's number surprisingly fair. Even with the 4 weeks spread, can't go against a Baffert Derby winner in this event. Swiss Skydiver absolutely fits in this group and Art Collector has every chance to win. Mr. Big News and Pneumatic provide exotics value..

Most Likely: #9 Authentic 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Swiss Skydiver 6-1 WON ($25.40)
Next Best: #3 Art Collector 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Mr. Big News 12-1 7th
Super/Hi-5: #10 Pneumatic 20-1 10th


P5 Grid:

7: 1-5 (A), (B), - (C)
8: 1-4 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)
9: 4-10 (A), 13 (B), 3-7-9 (C)
10: 1-5 (A), - (B), 7-8-9 (C)
11: 9 (A), 3-4 (B), 2-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2x1 = $16
Backups: $40 ~ 2x2x3x2x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 + 2x2x2x3x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 + 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


P4 Grid:

8: 1-6 (A), 4-8 (B), 3-5/SCR (C)
9: 4-10-13 (A), - (B), 3-7-9 (C)
10: 1-5-7-8 (A), - (B), 9 (C)
11: 9 (A), 3-4 (B), 2-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 72 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x4x1 = 24 x .50 = $12
Backups: $48 ~ 2x3x4x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 + 2x3x4x1 = 24 x .50 = $12 + 2x3x4x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


Good luck!
Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
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Last edited by Kasept : 10-03-2020 at 07:55 PM.
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  #2  
Old 10-03-2020, 08:12 AM
jsuperchi jsuperchi is offline
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Thank you Steve for the great analysis! I appreciate the effort and time you put in. Today’s the day!
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  #3  
Old 10-03-2020, 10:36 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
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PIM SCR/CHG'S
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Old 10-03-2020, 10:50 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
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Location: Greenwich, NY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jsuperchi View Post
Thank you Steve for the great analysis! I appreciate the effort and time you put in. Today’s the day!
J..

Very kind.. Thanks. Best o' luck today!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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