The Weak and Confused: Charlatan Didn’t Win a Bloated Race in Saudi Arabia

[RolloTomasi]

The Week in Review: Charlatan Ran a Huge Race in Saudi Arabia

He did not win Saturday over in Saudi Arabia, but Charlatan proved that he is undoubtedly the best dirt horse in America. That's how well he ran in his one-length defeat to Mishriff (Ire) in the $20-million race.

That’s a pretty sorry statement when the "best dirt horse in America” isn’t the "best dirt horse in the world”.

It was by no means a surprise that Charlatan and Knicks Go got caught up in a speed duel. Both are talented horses with abundant early speed and jockeys Joel Rosario (Knicks Go) and Mike Smith (Charlatan) rode aggressively, perhaps because neither rider wanted to see their rival get off to an uncontested lead in what many assumed was a two-horse race.

So the "best dirt horse in America” failed to win a race that was essentially billed as match race between two American dirt horses.

Yes, his loss under those circumstances certainly confirmed a lot…

No official fractional times for the race are available, only a final time of 1:49.59 for the mile-and-an-eighth. But a hand timing of the race using video timing revealed that the six furlongs went in 1:10.7. Considering that there was no run up to the race, the six-furlong time would be more like 1:09 and change for a comparable race run in the U.S.

Wow! A 39-second final 3 furlongs…really cookin’.

That means that Charlatan dueled with Knicks Go through a very fast three-quarters, while Mishriff got the perfect trip, stalking the two leaders from third. And he did so on a track that may have been biased toward outside closers. Speed didn't hold up in any of the dirt races Saturday and all of the winners were well off the rail in the stretch.

Oh, yeah; perfect trip for Mishriff. Well in his comfort zone. He was no more than a length and a half behind the frontrunners until the 2 geniuses riding the 2 "best dirt horses in America” decided to go all in with nearly a 1/2-mile left to run.

And never mind about the fact that he’s a Euro-based turf horse who hadn’t started on the dirt in 12 months and hadn’t started in a race of any kind in 4 months.

Knicks Go, a very good horse, couldn't handle the pressure. He was done on the turn and wound up finishing fourth, beaten 8 1/2 lengths.

Interesting…he’s a “very good horse”, but he can’t handle pace pressure. Kind of limits the superlatives I would think.

By the way, I’m a great basketball player. I just can’t handle playing against people taller than 6’…

Not so for Charlatan. He was still battling Mishriff with 100 meters to go in the race and didn't let the other horse get by him until a few jumps before the wire. The pace was fast, Charlatan never got a breather and then he was caught by a horse who had a perfect trip while racing on the best part of the track.

Since when did they start handing out “breathers” in 9-furlong races?

But yeah, I’m impressed. He shrugged off a horse you already admitted can’t handle pace pressure (in a 2-horse race no less) and then kept to his task through a pedestrian final quarter while failing to hold off a turf horse making his first start of the year that stayed on his left lead and lugged in throughout…

This may have been his best race.

Well, when you consider that the horse’s maiden race is in the frame for his “best race” you have to wonder why you’re even writing a puff piece on this hyped-up sprinter.

“He ran a big race,” trainer Bob Baffert said Sunday morning. “He put away Knicks Go, just ran him down, turned in a gallant effort and it's too bad he got beat.

Ran him down? Did he watch the race?

That's a demanding track. The stretch is so long, and he ran hard.

I thought a one-turn 9-furlong race was supposed to play to his strengths…now it was an impediment?

It was an exciting race and I would have loved to have won it, but I was afraid of a speed duel between him and Knicks Go. They locked horns after a half-mile and really picked it up the second quarter. But the way he ran, it shows what a brilliant horse he is. He put away a really good horse.”

“Really good” or “very good”? Knicks Go has won 2 allowance races, a BC undercard race, and a fake money race after getting pummeled on a regular basis in his previous 2 campaigns. The Cinderella story may have just struck midnight, Carl...

Who knew that these supposedly great modern day horses are on such shaky foundation that 2 of them hooking up for less than a 1/4-mile in the middle of the race one time is enough to send both spiraling into the jaws of defeat.

Speaking of quarters...sorry for not giving you a little something extra for the effort. I don't have anything for you now...but when you die, you will receive total consciousness (and maybe you will stop believing your own bullish!t).

So you've got that going for you...which is nice.

Charlatan's Saudi Cup performance was reminiscent of the 1978 GI Jockey Club Gold Cup, in which Seattle Slew lost after a heroic effort. He dueled with Affirmed and Life's Hope through fractions of 22.60, 45.20 and 1:09.40. The pace finished Affirmed, whose saddle slipped, and Life's Hope, but not Slew. Meanwhile, Exceller had a perfect off-the-pace trip, but Seattle Slew never gave up and lost by just a nose.

There is so much wrong with this that I don’t know where to start.

All I can say is that if Charlatan couldn’t hold off a turf horse after dueling with a confirmed pop-and-stopper in a one-turn dirt race, I shudder to think where he would have ended up in a 12-furlong race at Belmont in the slop with two Triple Crown winners and an international superhorse.

But let’s be honest, a horse like Charlatan trained by a trainer like Bob Baffert would never consider running in a such a race.

Oh…and by the way…since you obviously aren’t a fan of the sport or have any respect for past champions, invoking their greatness thoughtlessly to serve your sycophantic agenda , let me clue you in on something you forgot to mention (aside from the distance, the track condition, and the quality of the field) about that ’78 JCGC:

Seattle Slew was collared at the f’n 3/8s pole and then lost the lead to the tune of nearly a full length at the 1/8 pole…and he still powered back to lose by a f’n nose!

Suddenly I’m beginning to wonder if the word “Charlatan” shouldn’t refer to more than just the horse…

That's not to say that Charlatan is another Seattle Slew.

Huh? Were you actually going to entertain a comparison of a juvenile champion that remained undefeated through the Triple Crown (never mind his exploits as an older horse) to a horse that failed to start at 2 and missed the entire Triple Crown due to injury?

If so, that shipped sailed long ago…along with the vast majority of your brain cells…

He needs to do a lot more before he can be compared to one of the sport's all-time greats. But his effort in the Saudi Cup was nothing short of terrific.

That’s the irony you momo…he did come up short!

[Dunbar]

Thanks for the excellent read!

[Betsy]

Rollo, who wrote the original article? Privman ? I’m cracking up at your take!

I’m not a fan of Charlatan, and I was impressed by his gameness, but not every tough beat is reminiscent of Seattle Slew (my favorite horse ever, after Man o’War), lol. Nothing about this race is similar to the ‘78 Gold Cup - somehow this racing scribe managed to downplay Slew’s performance (“he never gave up” - what a bland description of his race - thank you for your colorful description, lol).

Charlatan is brilliant, but to say that he has a long way to go before being compared to Slew is putting it mildly.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Rollo, who wrote the original article? Privman ? I’m cracking up at your take!

I’m not a fan of Charlatan, and I was impressed by his gameness, but not every tough beat is reminiscent of Seattle Slew (my favorite horse ever, after Man o’War), lol. Nothing about this race is similar to the ‘78 Gold Cup - somehow this racing scribe managed to downplay Slew’s performance (“he never gave up” - what a bland description of his race - thank you for your colorful description, lol).

Charlatan is brilliant, but to say that he has a long way to go before being compared to Slew is putting it mildly.

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...-saudi-arabia/

[freddymo]

Seattle Slew? I think Seattle Fitz is a better comparison seriously Slew? Have a heart

[freddymo]

The fact that someone pays Bill Finley to write that drivel is amazing

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by robfla

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...-saudi-arabia/

Oh my god, I should have known...Privman is too good for this, but it’s just about right for Finley.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I’m not a fan of Charlatan, and I was impressed by his gameness, but not every tough beat is reminiscent of Seattle Slew (my favorite horse ever, after Man o’War), lol. Nothing about this race is similar to the ‘78 Gold Cup - somehow this racing scribe managed to downplay Slew’s performance (“he never gave up” - what a bland description of his race - thank you for your colorful description, lol).

I find it annoying that these hack turf writers simply dismiss Mishriff (IRE) as some nameless horse that got a "perfect trip". Wouldn't the sport and the public be better served by focusing on this relative newcomer to the American scene (you know, the winner), rather than re-hashing the same old dubious praise--even in defeat--on some horse that is always 50-50 to be making his final career start?

Mishriff (IRE)--unlike Charlatan--is actually a classic winner (French Derby) and has shown versatility on various types of ground. His pedigree is strong, hailing from one of the best present day sire lines in Europe outside of Galileo (Dubawi). The female family includes a French Oaks winner as the 3rd dam who dropped two major modern day stallions in Invincible Spirit and Kodiak.

Speaking of stallions, I wouldn't be shocked to learn that these hacks write these disingenuous pieces in order to lay the groundwork for the "chosen" horse's stud career. In that regard, you'd think they'd want to talk the horse up that dusted him so that Charlatan's defeat can be justified by more than simply "he had to face pace pressure".

Perhaps more importantly in the short-term, Mishriff (IRE) is actually being considered for the Dubai World Cup. Does anyone think that Charlatan (who is "playing it by ear") is going to be there?

[freddymo]

If they can get Charlatan back to the States and on a regimented Micro EPO program, could he make his final start in the Met Mile? You blow out a big 118 BSF and start working on his Stallion Adverts in July...Maybe something like this.Charlatan a better fraud for your money than Carpe Diem?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

If they can get Charlatan back to the States and on a regimented Micro EPO program, could he make his final start in the Met Mile? You blow out a big 118 BSF and start working on his Stallion Adverts in July...Maybe something like this.Charlatan a better fraud for your money than Carpe Diem?

If both Charlatan and Maxfield make it to the Met Mile, there may be a glimmer of hope for the sport.

I would even tolerate these turf writing hacks comparing such a match-up to the proposed Easy Goer-Sunday Silence race at Arlington in 1990 (so long as they both actually show up).

[moses]

lol...love reading your commentary.

[King Glorious]

Rollo, I have a question for you. I know how you feel about Charlatan. Assuming he can stay healthy all year (and I know that is not the strongest assumption), who are the horses that you see as being above him in this country running route races on dirt? The first horse that will come to many minds is Maxffield but he's just as iffy, if not moreso, from a physical perspective as Charlatan. Many times, your success is not defined strictly by how good you are but also by how good your competition is,

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Rollo, I have a question for you. I know how you feel about Charlatan. Assuming he can stay healthy all year (and I know that is not the strongest assumption), who are the horses that you see as being above him in this country running route races on dirt? The first horse that will come to many minds is Maxffield but he's just as iffy, if not moreso, from a physical perspective as Charlatan. Many times, your success is not defined strictly by how good you are but also by how good your competition is,

Isn’t the overall point that he won’t be healthy?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Isn’t the overall point that he won’t be healthy?

I don't make that assumption. But no, I don't think that's his overall point. I took it as his point is that the horse isn't that good or at the very least, won't be any good past 8f.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Rollo, I have a question for you. I know how you feel about Charlatan. Assuming he can stay healthy all year (and I know that is not the strongest assumption), who are the horses that you see as being above him in this country running route races on dirt? The first horse that will come to many minds is Maxffield but he's just as iffy, if not moreso, from a physical perspective as Charlatan. Many times, your success is not defined strictly by how good you are but also by how good your competition is,

Again, that's the irony of the results of the Saudi Cup. There is basically little competition for Charlatan and yet he still found a way to lose the race. I'm not sure why the people that previously anointed him as the best older horse in America despite not ever having won a two-turn race and seemed to be salivating that he'd get to run in a $20 million race around one-turn are suddenly changing gear and talking about how "heroic" and "game" the horse was Saturday. He should have won by 10 lengths against that field if we presume that Knicks Go was always going to fold in a duel (as many predicted).

The fact that Charlatan himself couldn't ultimately handle pace pressure or relax in the early stages of the race pretty much exposes him as far as routes go despite the paltry competition on the scene. Maybe those limitations have to do with Mike Smith's awful race riding, but until proven otherwise he is still simply a superior sprinter.

Do you think Charlatan is going to improve when he goes two turns?
Do you think Charlatan is going to improve when he goes 10 furlongs?

The only way he will win a race like the Gold Cup or the Pacific Classic is if we get the usual paceless, small fields we've seen in CA for decades now.

In a field of even modest quality with a fair pace scenario, I could fathom horses like Code of Honor or Express Train running this horse down, never mind Maxfield, at 10 furlongs. There's also Performer and Mystic Guide waiting in the wings that are better suited to routes. Silver State and The Sound have won 3 straight allowances a piece and have enough speed to make Charlatan work early.

But don't hold your breath for any of this to get settled on the racetrack. Unless Baffert goes for the Met Mile (which would suggest he has no plans to run the horse 10 furlongs) I would fully expect Charlatan to remain in the friendly confines of facing Tizamagician, Extra Hope, Kiss Today Goodbye, and Independence Hall, probably in the San Diego and Pacific Classic.

And if Charlatan does happen to make it to the BC Classic, it would be presumptuous to think Mishriff wouldn't point for the race himself, especially if he gives a good account of himself in the Dubai World Cup. The horse clearly handles the dirt (Baffert even conveniently red-boarded that Mishriff was always the horse to beat) and is in the barn of a trainer who formerly trained in CA and won the BC Classic with this horse's similarly Euro-based grandsire...

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't make that assumption. But no, I don't think that's his overall point. I took it as his point is that the horse isn't that good or at the very least, won't be any good past 8f.

Well yeah there were many points. How many races you think Charlatan has left in him? 3 at most?

He’s a good, maybe very good horse under the right circumstances. He’s also a horse that has made 5 starts through February of his 4 year old year. Maybe he will be ready by June for the Met Mile but IMO he’s more likely to retire instead of run. I guess we will see but I’m putting the over/under at 3 1/2 more starts for him and I’ll take the under for the table limit.

[blackthroatedwind]

Met Mile, Forego, retirement.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I find it annoying that these hack turf writers simply dismiss Mishriff (IRE) as some nameless horse that got a "perfect trip". Wouldn't the sport and the public be better served by focusing on this relative newcomer to the American scene (you know, the winner), rather than re-hashing the same old dubious praise--even in defeat--on some horse that is always 50-50 to be making his final career start?

Mishriff (IRE)--unlike Charlatan--is actually a classic winner (French Derby) and has shown versatility on various types of ground. His pedigree is strong, hailing from one of the best present day sire lines in Europe outside of Galileo (Dubawi). The female family includes a French Oaks winner as the 3rd dam who dropped two major modern day stallions in Invincible Spirit and Kodiak.

Speaking of stallions, I wouldn't be shocked to learn that these hacks write these disingenuous pieces in order to lay the groundwork for the "chosen" horse's stud career. In that regard, you'd think they'd want to talk the horse up that dusted him so that Charlatan's defeat can be justified by more than simply "he had to face pace pressure".

Perhaps more importantly in the short-term, Mishriff (IRE) is actually being considered for the Dubai World Cup. Does anyone think that Charlatan (who is "playing it by ear") is going to be there?

Bill forgot that another horse won the race, lol. I agree with you, good points. Finley is the same guy that wrote a fake recap of the SA Derby (before the race) that had Authentic winning by 11; it was a love fest for the horse and BB - and he apparently removed it because he didn’t like the comments. He probably assumed Charlatan would win, and now he’s making excuses.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Well yeah there were many points. How many races you think Charlatan has left in him? 3 at most?

He’s a good, maybe very good horse under the right circumstances. He’s also a horse that has made 5 starts through February of his 4 year old year. Maybe he will be ready by June for the Met Mile but IMO he’s more likely to retire instead of run. I guess we will see but I’m putting the over/under at 3 1/2 more starts for him and I’ll take the under for the table limit.

I think that over/under would have to be set at 2.5 starts to be a fair line.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Again, that's the irony of the results of the Saudi Cup. There is basically little competition for Charlatan and yet he still found a way to lose the race. I'm not sure why the people that previously anointed him as the best older horse in America despite not ever having won a two-turn race and seemed to be salivating that he'd get to run in a $20 million race around one-turn are suddenly changing gear and talking about how "heroic" and "game" the horse was Saturday. He should have won by 10 lengths against that field if we presume that Knicks Go was always going to fold in a duel (as many predicted).

The fact that Charlatan himself couldn't ultimately handle pace pressure or relax in the early stages of the race pretty much exposes him as far as routes go despite the paltry competition on the scene. Maybe those limitations have to do with Mike Smith's awful race riding, but until proven otherwise he is still simply a superior sprinter.

Do you think Charlatan is going to improve when he goes two turns?
Do you think Charlatan is going to improve when he goes 10 furlongs?

The only way he will win a race like the Gold Cup or the Pacific Classic is if we get the usual paceless, small fields we've seen in CA for decades now.

In a field of even modest quality with a fair pace scenario, I could fathom horses like Code of Honor or Express Train running this horse down, never mind Maxfield, at 10 furlongs. There's also Performer and Mystic Guide waiting in the wings that are better suited to routes. Silver State and The Sound have won 3 straight allowances a piece and have enough speed to make Charlatan work early.

But don't hold your breath for any of this to get settled on the racetrack. Unless Baffert goes for the Met Mile (which would suggest he has no plans to run the horse 10 furlongs) I would fully expect Charlatan to remain in the friendly confines of facing Tizamagician, Extra Hope, Kiss Today Goodbye, and Independence Hall, probably in the San Diego and Pacific Classic.

And if Charlatan does happen to make it to the BC Classic, it would be presumptuous to think Mishriff wouldn't point for the race himself, especially if he gives a good account of himself in the Dubai World Cup. The horse clearly handles the dirt (Baffert even conveniently red-boarded that Mishriff was always the horse to beat) and is in the barn of a trainer who formerly trained in CA and won the BC Classic with this horse's similarly Euro-based grandsire...

To answer the questions, no I don't think he'll improve going two turns and no, I don't expect him to improve going 10f. But I expect very few horses of today's stakes horses to be better going longer than shorter.

I'm sure you've heard the old one about the two guys being chased by a bear and the first guy says to the other "you can't outrun a bear". To which the second guy says "I don't have to outrun the bear, I just need to beat you." I bring this up to say that if Charlatan was facing top horses going two turns or 10f, I might share your doubts about how well he'd perform. But in the absence of any horses that I look at and think they are good horses, it increases my optimism about Charlatan. He doesn't have to be a great horse, he just has to be faster than the other horses against him. To this point, I see no other horses that I would pick against him with any confidence, with Mishriff being the obvious exception. You mentioned Code of Honor, Express Train, Performer, Mystic Guide, Silver State, The Sound, and Maxfield. The only horse among those that I see anywhere close to as talented as Charlatan is Maxfield and again, he's under the same red flag health wise as Charlatan is, maybe even a bigger one. At this point, I'm taking Charlatan against any of them going any distance. Hopefully, we get the chance to see it play out on the track although the chances of that aren't very high.