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#1
04-28-2021, 05:09 PM
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4/30: Churchill Downs ~ 147th Kentucky Oaks Day
CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 147TH OAKS DAY
POST-SCRATCHES 1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD) Best Value: #6 Mucho Macho Momma 8-1 2nd Next Best: #1 Favorite Sin 5-2 4th Exotics Use: #4 Powder River 7-2 WON ($12.60) Super Add: #2 Pop a Choc 3-1 3rd 2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD) Best Value: #8 Musical Cat 12-1 7th Next Best: #7 Anamuya 9-2 6th Exotics Use: #1 Love in the Air SCR Super Add: #2 Front Street 5-1 5th 3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD) Best Value: #4 Australasia 4-1 WON ($4.40) Next Best: #5 Zainalarab 3-1 2nd Exotics Use: #7 Amalfi Princess 7-2 6th Super Add: #2 Rookery 4-1 7th 4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 American West 3-1 7th Best Value: #3 Illiogami 9-2 WON ($7.00) Next Best: #10 Another Woman 7-2 6th Exotics Use: #7 Tabor Hall 8-1 2nd 5th: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD) Best Value: #1 Temple 5-1 4th Next Best: 10 Spooky Channel 4-1 2nd Exotics Use: #7 Big Dreaming 10-1 6th Super Add: #4 Ever Dangerous 5-1 3rd P5 Grid: 1: 1-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C) 2: 7-8 (A), 1-2 (B), - (C) 3: 4 (A), - (B), 2-5-7 (C) 4: 2-3-10 (A), - (B), - (C) 5: 1-10 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 3x2x1x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 Backup: 3x2x3x3x2 = 108 x .50 = $54 P4 Grid: 2: 1-2-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C) 3: 4 (A), 5 (B), 2-7 (C) 4: 2-3-10 (A), - (B), - (C) 5: 1-10 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48 All A's: 4x1x3x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 Backup: 4x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 6th: Alysheba (G2), 4+, 8.5f (.20 Derby City P6, ) Most Likely: #6 Maxfield 4-5 WON ($3.00) Next Best: #5 Roadster 9-2 4th Exotics Use: #2 Sonneman 5-1 5th Super Add: #4 Chess Chief 5-1 3rd 7th: Edgewood (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD) Most Likely: #6 Aunt Pearl 4-5 5th Best Value: #1 Postnup 6-1 6th Next Best: #2 Gift List 7-2 WON ($10.80) Exotics Use: #3 Queen of the Green 10-1 4th P5 Grid: 3: 4 (A), 5 (B), 2-7 (C) 4: 2-3-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C) 5: 1-10 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C) 6: 6 (A), - (B), 2-5 (C) 7: 6 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C) Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x1x1 = $32 All A's: 1x4x2x1x1 = $8 Backups: $8 (2-7) + $8 (2-5) + $8 (1-2) P4 Grid: 4: 2-3-7-10 (A), - (B), - (C) 5: 1-10 (A), 4-7 (B), - (C) 6: 6 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C) 7: 6 (A), - (B), 1-2 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x4x3x1 = $48 All A's: 4x2x1x1 = $8 Backups: $8 (1-2) 8th: La Troienne (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f $2 G1 2-Day P6, P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Shedaresthedevil 8-5 WON ($5.40) Next Best: #3 Dunbar Road 5-2 5th Best Value: #6 Sanenus 10-1 7th Exotics Use: #7 Finite 5-1 3rd $2 G1 2-Day P6 Grid: FRI 8: 2 (A), - (B), 3 (C) ~ La Troienne FRI 11: 10 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C) ~ Kentucky Oaks SAT 7: 4 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Distaff SAT 10: 5-9 (A), 7-12 (B), - (C) ~ Churchill Downs SAT 11: 3-4-6 (A), - (B), 1-2-5 (C) ~ Turf Classic SAT 12: 10-14-15 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Kentucky Derby Simple (A+B): 1x3x1x4x3x3 = 108 x $2 = $216 All A's: 1x1x1x2x3x3 = 18 x $2 = $36 Backups: $36 (1-2-5) 9th: Eight Belles (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD) Half the field turns back here which should make for a madcap scramble when mixed in with the sprinters. And though it's deep water for a seasonal debut, I'm not dismissing Dayoutoftheoffice completely off sharp works with Into Mischiefs eligible to make big strides from 2 to 3.. Best Value: #12 Caramel Swirl 12-1 7th Next Best: #6 Slumber Party 6-1 8th Exotics Use: #10 Dayoutoftheoffice 3-1 2nd Super Add: #9 Li'l Tootsie 8-1 6th 10th: Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #8 Fast Boat 7-2 WON ($10.40) Next Best: #3 Fiya 3-1 11th Best Value: #11 Carotari 6-1 5th Exotics Use: #9 Diamond Oops 5-1 4th 11th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks/Turf Classic Derby P3, Oaks/Derby DBL, P3, DD, Hi-5) While still on the development curve, hoping Malathaat is ready right now to elevate herself further in this setting. And given her proximity in the Ashland, Pass the Champagne looks like the right alternate win candidate at a price. Hard to avoid respect for for Travel Column and Clairiere and Crazy Beautiful has been the single most exciting morning presence male or female preparing for the weekend. After that "Hi-5", there are several that would be no surprise in any pay slot including Millefeuille and Search Results of course. While the overall quality of the sophomore filly set is still in flux, this is an outstanding race in terms of how well-matched they are as a group right now.. Most Likely: #10 Malathaat 5-2 WON ($7.00) Best Value: #5 Pass the Champagne 15-1 12th Next Best: #6 Travel Column 3-1 5th Exotics Use: #4 Crazy Beautiful 15-1 10th Super/Hi-5: #3 Clairiere 5-1 4th Oaks/Turf Classic/Derby P3 Grid: FRI 11: 5-6-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-12 (C) ~ Kentucky Oaks SAT 11: 3-4-6 (A), 1-2-5 (B), - (C) ~ Turf Classic SAT 12: 10-14-15 (A), - (B), 1-8-9-11 (C) ~ Kentucky Derby Simple (A+B): 3x6x3 = $54 ($27 for .50) All A's: 3x3x3 = $27 ($13.50 for .50) Backups (.50): $13.50 (3-4-12) + $18 (1-8-9-11) Oaks/Derby DBL: FRI 11: 5-6-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-12 (C) ~ Kentucky Oaks SAT 12: 10-14-15 (A), - (B), 1-8-9-11 (C) ~ Kentucky Derby Simple (A+B): 3x3 = 18 x $3 = $54 Backup: $9 (3-4-12) + $12 (1-8-9-11) .20 Derby City P6 Grid: 6: 6 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C) 7: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), - (C) 8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C) 9: 6-10-12 (A), 3-7-9 (B), - (C) 10: 3-8 (A), 9-11 (B), - (C) 11: 10 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x3x2x6x4x1 = $86.40 All A's: 1x3x2x3x2x1 = $7.20 Backup: $14.20 (5-6) $0.20 Pick-6 (6/2/2/7/8/7,10) Paid $2,273.30 P5 Grid: 7: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), - (C) 8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C) 9: 6-10-12 (A), 3-7-9 (B), - (C) 10: 3-8 (A), 9-11 (B), 1-10 (C) 11: 10 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C) Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 Backups: $18 (1-10) + $36 (5-6) $0.50 Pick-5 (2/2/7/8/7,10) Paid $3,310.45 P4 Grid: 8: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C) 9: 6-10-12 (A), 3-7-9 (B), - (C) 10: 3-8 (A), 9-11 (B), 1-10 (C) 11: 5-6-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-12 (C) Simple (A+B): 2x6x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 Backups: $18 (1-10) + $18 (3-4-12) $0.50 Pick-4 (2/7/8/7,10) Paid $384.65 12th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD) Most Likely: #8 More Than Unusual 7-2 3rd Best Value: #10 Alnaseem 8-1 4th Next Best: #2 Mintd 4-1 WON ($9.00) Exotics Use: #4 Choate Bridge 4-1 9th 13th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f Most Likely: #3 Magic Quest 9-2 8th Best Value: #9 Lonely June 15-1 4th Next Best: #10 Played Hard 9-2 2nd Exotics Use: #2 Liberty Isle 9-2 5th P5 Grid: 9: 6-10-12 (A), 3-7-9 (B), - (C) 10: 3-8 (A), - (B), 9-11 (C) 11: 10 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C) 12: 8-10 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C) 13: 3-9 (A), 2-10 (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 6x2x1x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96 All A's: 3x2x1x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 Backups: $12 (9-11) + $24 (5-6) P4 Grid: 10: 3-8 (A), 9-11 (B), - (C) 11: 10 (A), - (B), 3-4-5-6-12 (C) 12: 8-10 (A), 2-4 (B), - (C) 13: 2-3-9-10 (A), - (B), - (C) Simple (A+B): 4x1x4x4 = 64 x .50 = $32 All A's: 2x1x2x4 = 16 x .50 = $8 Backups: $40 (3-4-5-6-12) Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 04-30-2021 at 07:16 PM. 
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#2
04-29-2021, 06:31 PM
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Early SCR's for Friday's Oaks card:
Race 3: 3 Race 5: 3, 5, 8, 11 Race 11: 7 Race 12: 5, 14-18 Race 13: 13
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#4
04-30-2021, 07:52 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
04-30-2021, 10:25 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#9
04-30-2021, 06:15 PM
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Terrific job.
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#10
04-30-2021, 06:16 PM
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Congrats Steve
 
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#14
04-30-2021, 07:27 PM
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Great work today Steve
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#17
04-30-2021, 08:00 PM
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Thanks so much guys.. The afternoon kept gaining momentum. Hope many benefited! Incredibly proud of how the ATR lineup delivered a steady stream of invaluable info towards wagering success.
More work to do though! Have to pick Tina up at the airport now and will get the Saturday finished soon as I can.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#20
05-01-2021, 04:50 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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