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#1
04-30-2021, 06:35 AM
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5/1: Churchill Downs ~ 147th Kentucky Derby Day
CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ 147TH DERBY DAY
POST-SCRATCHES 1st: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD) Uh.. Do yourself a favor and tread lightly early Saturday.. Best Value: #5 Soros 6-1 9th Next Best: #4 Cool Bobby 3-1 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Sounion 5-1 6th Super Add: #8 Randello 12-1 8th 2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD) This is an utterly impossible, thoroughly mysterious group that further contributes to the suggestion you tread lightly early today.. Best Value: #7 Cerulean 15-1 5th Next Best: #10 Elle Est Forte 3-1 7th Exotics Use: #12 The Ginger Queen 9-2 12th Super Add: #1 Cadencia 2-1 4th 3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD) Best Value: #2 Extreme 9-2 2nd Next Best: #5 Koolhaus 9-2 WON ($11.40) Exotics Use: #4 Cash Rocket 3-1 4th Super Add: #7 Alejandro 7-2 3rd 4th: OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD) Best Value: #9 Gun It 10-1 9th Next Best: #4 Salvator Mundi 5-1 10th Exotics Use: #7 Oak Hill 8-1 11th Super Add: #6 Hay Dakota 8-1 5th 5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Ghazaaly 5-2 2nd Next Best: #2 Who Took the Money Late SCR Best Value: #3 Quantum Leap 12-1 8th Exotics Use: #11 Masqueparade 4-1 WON ($9.80) 6th: Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD) Best Value: #2 She's Got You 10-1 6th Next Best: #6 Blowout 7-2 WON ($5.80) Exotics Use: #5 Got Stormy 8-5 5th Super Add: #4 Zofelle 2-1 3rd 7th: Derby City (G1), F&M-4+, 7f ('Must Pay' .20 Derby City P6, P3, DD) Most Likely: #4 Gamine 1-5 WON ($2.40) Next Best: #3 Bell's the One 6-1 4th Best Value: #1 Estilo Talentoso 15-1 3rd Exotics Use: #2 Sconsin 8-1 2nd 8th: Pat Day Mile (G2), 3yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD) Jackie's Warrior, Defunded, Prevalence, Dream Shake, Sittin On Go & Noble Reflection all cut back to one turn. Should be a terrific running.. Most Likely: #3 Jackie's Warrior 3-1 WON ($6.60) Best Value: #4 Defunded 6-1 4th Next Best: #8 Dream Shake 7-2 2nd Exotics Use: #9 Sittin On Go 20-1 5th P5 Grid: 4: 4-7-9 (A), 3-6-8 (B), - (C) 5: 2-5 (A), - (B), 3-11 (C) 6: 2-6 (A), 4-5-7 (B), 3 (C) 7: 4 (A), - (B), - (C) 8: 3-4-8 (A), - (B), 5-6-9-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 6x2x5x1x3 = 180 x .50 = $90 All A's: 3x2x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 Backups: $18 (3-11) + $9 (3) + $24 (5-6-9-11) P4 Grid: 5: 2-3-5-11 (A), - (B), - (C) 6: 2-6 (A), 4-5-7 (B), 3 (C) 7: 4 (A), - (B), - (C) 8: 3-4-8 (A), 5-6-9 (B), 11 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x5x1x6 = 120 x .50 = $60 All A's: 4x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12 Backups: $6 (3) + $4 (11) .50 Pick Four (11-1/6-4-2/3) Paid $47.30 9th: American Turf (G1), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Yikes. Half of this field of 14 looks eligible for laurels, so apply prices liberally.. Most Likely: #1 Excellent Timing 10-1 14th Next Best: #14 Palazzi 10-1 5th Best Value: #10 Next 20-1 11th Exotics Use: #4 Annex 7-2 8th 10th: Churchill Downs (G1), 4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD) I used 5-7-9-12 in the 2-day $2 P6, so I'm married to those (and Derby Barbie of course). Mind Control (6-1) scares me here and would even if Irad wasn't signed on.. Best Value: #5 Tap It to Win 8-1 11th Next Best: #9 Whitmore 7-2 3rd Exotics Use: #7 Shashashakemeup 12-1 10th Super Add: #12 Endorsed 12-1 9th 11th: Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5) Spread to 6 wide in the 2-day P6 (1-2-3-4-5-6) and that may not have been enough with Smooth Like Straight a wire threat and Cross Border & Ride a Comet no doorknobs either. Outstanding group for this annual Derby prequel.. Best Value: #6 Digital Age 8-1 5th Next Best: #4 Ivar 5-1 6th Exotics Use: #3 Colonel Liam 3-1 DH-WON ($2.80) Super Add: #1 Masteroffoxhounds 15-1 8th 12th: Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Hi-5) Admit to finding this a confusing Derby with a 100% legit (undefeated!) favorite that just isn't all that inspiring. Of note is Friday circumstance of Malathaat effort which could provide Shadwell & Godolphin with their most important North American wins ever. Meanwhile, I'll side with a well-priced Midnight Bourbon who has been consistent, has had a great lead up to Derby and will be among the leaders at the 8th pole. Rock Your World fits that profile as well, and in many ways is the horse to beat. I've built plays around that trio as A's, but I won't be surprised by either of Todd Pletcher's best hopes (Known Agenda/Dynamic One) or O'Neill (Hot Rod Charlie) & Baffert (Medina Spirit). O Besos is my preferred late running exotics candidate, but Keepmeinmind or even Hidden Stash can invade at giant numbers. While it may be a quirky edition of America's best race, it's been a pretty 'normal' Derby fortnight which feels good after an extended period of difficulty. Don't be shy betting whatever opinion you've formulated and get lucky! Best Value: #10 Midnight Bourbon 20-1 6th Next Best: #15 Rock Your World 5-1 17th Exotics Use: #14 Essential Quality 2-1 4th Super Add: #6 O Besos 20-1 5th Hi-5 Play: #1 Known Agenda 6-1 9th Deep Exotics: #11 Dynamic One 20-1 18th .50 Reverse Tri Key using 4-Keepmeinmind, 6-O Besos, 13-Hidden Stash: 1-8-9-10-11-14-15-17 with 1-8-9-10-11-14-15-17 with 4-6-13 (8x7x3 = 168 x .50 = $84) .20 Derby City P6 Grid: 7: 4 (A), - (B), - (C) 8: 3-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C) 9: 1-14 (A), 4-10 (B), - (C) 10: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), 2-12 (C) 11: 3-4-6 (A), - (B), 1-2-5 (C) 12: 1-10-14-15 (A), - (B), 8-9-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 1x3x4x3x3x4 = 432 x .20 = $86.40 All A's: 1x3x2x3x3x2 = 108 x .20 = $21.60 Backups: $28.80 (2-12) + $43.20 (1-2-5) + $32.40 (8-9-11) P5 Grid: 8: 3 (A), - (B), 4-8 (C) 9: 1-14 (A), 4-10 (B), - (C) 10: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), 2-12 (C) 11: 4-6 (A), 3 (B), 1-2-5 (C) 12: 10-14-15 (A), 1 (B), 8-9-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 1x4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 1x2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 Backups: $36 (4-8) + $12 (2-12) + $27 (1-2-5) + $18 (8-9-11) P4 Grid: 9: 1-14 (A), 4-10 (B), - (C) 10: 5-7-9 (A), - (B), 2-12 (C) 11: 4-6 (A), 3 (B), 1-2-5 (C) 12: 1-10-14-15 (A), - (B), 8-9-11 (C) Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 All A's: 2x3x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24 Backups: $16 (2-12) + $36 (1-2-5) + $18 (8-9-11) $2 G1 2-Day P6 Grid: FRI 8: 2 (A), - (B), 3 (C) ~ La Troienne FRI 11: 10 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C) ~ Kentucky Oaks SAT 7: 4 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Distaff SAT 10: 5-9 (A), 7-12 (B), - (C) ~ Churchill Downs SAT 11: 3-4-6 (A), - (B), 1-2-5 (C) ~ Turf Classic SAT 12: 10-14-15 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Kentucky Derby Simple (A+B): 1x3x1x4x3x3 = 108 x $2 = $216 All A's: 1x1x1x2x3x3 = 18 x $2 = $36 Backups: $36 (1-2-5) Oaks/Turf Classic/Derby P3 Grid: FRI 11: 5-6-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-12 (C) ~ Kentucky Oaks SAT 11: 3-4-6 (A), 1-2-5 (B), - (C) ~ Turf Classic SAT 12: 10-14-15 (A), - (B), 1-8-9-11 (C) ~ Kentucky Derby Simple (A+B): 3x6x3 = $54 ($27 for .50) All A's: 3x3x3 = $27 ($13.50 for .50) Backups (.50): $13.50 (3-4-12) + $18 (1-8-9-11) .50 Pick Three (OAKS/FRSTR/DERBY10-3-8) Paid $51.85 Oaks/Derby DBL: FRI 11: 5-6-10 (A), - (B), 3-4-12 (C) ~ Kentucky Oaks SAT 12: 10-14-15 (A), - (B), 1-8-9-11 (C) ~ Kentucky Derby Simple (A+B): 3x3 = 18 x $3 = $54 Backup: $9 (3-4-12) + $12 (1-8-9-11) $1 Daily Double (OAKS/DERBY 10-8) Paid $47.90 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-02-2021 at 01:44 PM. 
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#2
05-01-2021, 05:52 AM
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Early Derby Day SCR's
Race 2: 13-16 Race 3: 1 Race 4: 13-16 Race 8: 2 Race 10: 6 Race 12: 16 Race 13: 1a, 6, 10
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
05-01-2021, 07:53 AM
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steve
on ur 1st pick 5 starting in the 4th [race 6] you have the2 in [a] column and [c] column same with the pick 4 starting in race 5 im sure the 2 belongs in a column what is the typo in the c column? thank you
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#6
05-01-2021, 08:05 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#7
05-01-2021, 08:20 AM
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Pb72vett-winner
Hi Steve, in derby today your top 3 who are most leaning on to win? Mike has not rode much and not been on top horses for wins,i dont see any real threat of you putting hot rod in your plays. Any words would be of help.
 
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#8
05-01-2021, 09:47 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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Hope it carry overs to today!!!!
Linear Mode
