belgravia a single..

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

this horse should not lose at the wood 5/2 and coupled.. a single in the pick 6 and 4 ..thoughts...

Is that tomorrow's HWood?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Is that tomorrow's HWood?

yes..it is

Yeah, I love Belgravia in the Prevue...definately think that horse will do very well, if not win . I'm really excited about watching him run!

Katy

Didn't get to Hwood yet. I follow it and watch it but don't bet it(only grass) so its the last track I look at.
I'm drueling over the Aqueduct pik-4(first one tomorrow).

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

this horse should not lose at the wood 5/2 and coupled.. a single in the pick 6 and 4 ..thoughts...

I have a Notion you might get burned.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Belgravia is obviously a class horse, but look carefully at a horse called Notional.

[Bogey]

Hooves, I hate to rain on your parade, but you might want to take a second look at #2 Dilemma - He's improved with every race and it seems he has multiple gears to keep this field at bay. I've watched all of his races and he is very talented and versatile. The only reason I mention him is because I'm thinking about using him as a single in the PK4.

Good Racing Luck

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Hooves, I hate to rain on your parade, but you might want to take a second look at #2 Dilemma - He's improved with every race and it seems he has multiple gears to keep this field at bay. I've watched all of his races and he is very talented and versatile. The only reason I mention him is because I'm thinking about using him as a single in the PK4.

Good Racing Luck

Yeah, Dilemma really looks good as well AND he is improving with every race AND he has a foundation unlike both Notional and Belgravia. There are a lot of +s with that guy.

But I still like Notional.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Hooves, I hate to rain on your parade, but you might want to take a second look at #2 Dilemma - He's improved with every race and it seems he has multiple gears to keep this field at bay. I've watched all of his races and he is very talented and versatile. The only reason I mention him is because I'm thinking about using him as a single in the PK4.

Good Racing Luck

My top pick.

Did you watch Pawnee's maiden score? The Beyer didn't come back all that high, but he made one heck of a move when the pace wasn't all that hot. 20-1, could be interesting.

http://www.calracing.com/replays.php

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

My top pick.

Did you watch Pawnee's maiden score? The Beyer didn't come back all that high, but he made one heck of a move when the pace wasn't all that hot. 20-1, could be interesting.

http://www.calracing.com/replays.php

Sightseek, I just watched the replay again to refresh my memory and although he was visually impressive, the truth is that the others went quick up front and folded like a cheap suit. It took him 7 starts to break his maiden at 26-1. I would be surprised if he was able to duplicate that effort. Maybe underneath to pick up the pieces.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

you very well could be right..i just thought i saw something really nice in this one ...we will see..

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

this horse should not lose at the wood 5/2 and coupled.. a single in the pick 6 and 4 ..thoughts...

Only 1 thought. I hate betting 2 yr-olds with as few as a single race going against each other...I have to assume others, very close to the horses, have much more info than I do. Maybe you're right about Belgravia/Chief's Magic, but I can't see anything wrong with Notional or Dilemna either.

As a separate race, I'd pass. If I were betting the PicSix, I'd have to include all 3 (and still worry a lot).

--Dunbar

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Julian hasn't looked very good out here.Horse looked like the type that is just asking to be put in trouble.These are pretty fast horses,and I don't think he beat fast ones at Keeneland.Beautiful mover,but the entrymate is probably the more likely winner.Chief's Magic looks like a nice horse,but HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH NOT GIVING A HORSE A WORK OVER THIS TRACK!! Because of that,I would take Notional.None of these horses are paying anything.Race is useless for betting.

[Dunbar]

Another piece of info:

Pinnacle has this matchup:

Prime Ruler vs Belgravia
214 Prime Ruler -102
215 Belgravia -114

So they make Belgravia just a slight fav over a horse I barely looked at.

On the plus side, DRF shows Biancone with a humongous $4.18 ROI for his 36 2nd starters (19 winners).

--Dunbar

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Another piece of info:

Pinnacle has this matchup:

Prime Ruler vs Belgravia
214 Prime Ruler -102
215 Belgravia -114

So they make Belgravia just a slight fav over a horse I barely looked at.

On the plus side, DRF shows Biancone with a humongous $4.18 ROI for his 36 2nd starters (19 winners).

--Dunbar

Someone threw some cash on Belgravia. This is what it is now.

Hollywood Park: Race 9
Sat 11/18 Prime Ruler vs Belgravia
Maximum Wager: 200.00 USD
03:35 PM 214 Prime Ruler +129 Risk To Win
215 Belgravia -145 Risk To Win

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Julian hasn't looked very good out here.Horse looked like the type that is just asking to be put in trouble.These are pretty fast horses,and I don't think he beat fast ones at Keeneland.Beautiful mover,but the entrymate is probably the more likely winner.Chief's Magic looks like a nice horse,but HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH NOT GIVING A HORSE A WORK OVER THIS TRACK!! Because of that,I would take Notional.None of these horses are paying anything.Race is useless for betting.

Scuds this is a prime example of what makes wagering on cushion so very hard, and why I pass.
Its pretty obvious to every man woman and child alive who can read that Notional is so much more talented than these its not funny.
Problem is how will he handle the artificial stuff?
Marked Warrior was great last time, but same question applies to him.
Not playing it, only watching it.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

the safe play...watch...the tough play single...the smart play use all three..

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Scuds this is a prime example of what makes wagering on cushion so very hard, and why I pass.
Its pretty obvious to every man woman and child alive who can read that Notional is so much more talented than these its not funny.
Problem is how will he handle the artificial stuff?
Marked Warrior was great last time, but same question applies to him.
Not playing it, only watching it.

You involved with these people getting M.W.?

Well,I doubt everybody will be so lucky as to have Notional run on this track if he doesn't look great working on it.This ain't that loose skin slob(Stein.)Notional has been here since mid-Sept. I would be concerned with the Baffert horse though.Not 1 work on the track.Anybody atleast see him gallop on it? Marked Warrior is working good on it.Chatlos is usually pretty aware of what horse's like (as far as surface goes.)He is smarter than the cartoon character that he plays.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Sightseek, I just watched the replay again to refresh my memory and although he was visually impressive, the truth is that the others went quick up front and folded like a cheap suit. It took him 7 starts to break his maiden at 26-1. I would be surprised if he was able to duplicate that effort. Maybe underneath to pick up the pieces.

Pawnee intrigues me, I think he'll hit the tri. The seven starts give him a good foundation and he already has a win at the distance which no one else in the field can claim. Big discrepancy between the Beyer and equibase figure last race as well, he got a 74 Beyer and a 94 equibase which are usually only about ten points higher than the Beyers. I often find value by comparing them. If you find the cases that Beyer questionably split a variant you can get great value since so many are betting the Beyers. If you treat it like an 84 Beyer and factor in ground loss last out he could factor in at a price.