8/18: Saratoga Race 1 - Jonathan Sheppard Steeplechase Handicap

[Flatterer]

The marquee steeplechase race at Saratoga will be contested over 9 jumps around 5 turns in the Johnathan Sheppard handicap.

No steeplechase race next week, The Walsh Novice did not fill, and hopefully the September 1 Allowance race will fill. As a result, eligible novice runners are in today.

We’ll see if NYRA adds another beacon between the dismantled stretch jump and the finish line. I hope NYRA adds a beacon for safety of horse and rider.

There appears to be an inherent flaw in the rating system that the NSA uses. Instead of reviewing the body of a horse’s performance, at least the last 3-5 races, the rating system 3 man team adjusts all runners after their last race. So whoever runs great in their last race will be assigned an excessive rating.

Director of racing Bill Gallo is not on the ratings committee and says that he takes the ratings assigned “under advisement” but he determines the handicap weights. So when #3 Baltimore Bucko’s rating jumped 11 points after winning the Smithwick, Mr. Gallo determined that was not enough and assigned 14 extra pounds. In addition, when #6 The Mean Queen was dancing with the final beacon while 8 lengths in front in the Kiser, her rating went up 2 points and she only picked up 1 pound.

There is clearly a disconnect between the ratings committee and Mr. Gallo’s weight assignments. Let’s try to use this disparity to our advantage. In years past, Mr. Gallo has assigned weight that is 16-18 points higher than the rating but he did not follow that guideline for all the runners this year. So a 128 rating would receive a 146 weight pound assignment.

Here is a look at the field with NSA ratings and weight assignments in parenthesis.

#1 City Dreamer (128 – 146) Inherited a 2nd place finish in the Kiser and drops 7 pounds from that race. Did run within 10 lengths of Snap Decision last year over this course. Soundly defeated by #3 Baltimore Bucko at Nashville at level weights and a 10 pound break won’t make a difference today for Clancy.

#2 Gibralfaro (132 - 148) Clancy’s other runner that always picks up a check and gets a huge 8 pound weight break from #3 Baltimore Bucko. Newly minted Hall of Fame trainer Jack Fisher best chance for his first win at the meet. Runs one pace and the soft turf hurts his chances but will hit the board.

#3 Baltimore Bucko (131 - 156) Likes the soft turf that he’ll get today but picks up excessive weight and loses jockey Garner who gave a perfect ride in the Smithwick. He was eligible for the Kiser but ran in the Smithwick and paid the price with an excessive weight assignment. Jockey Condon will most likely put him on the front end and play catch me if you can again but the extra 14 pounds will dull his effort.

#4 French Light (128 - 152) Another runner that is paying the price for his good effort in the Smithwick. Bargary picks up the mount with no weight break from #3 Baltimore Bucko but is a course and distance winner last year.

#5 A Silent Prayer (120 - 142) Overmatched in the Kiser, gets a light 142 weight assignment and ran within 5 lengths to #4 French Light last year at level weights. Now gets a 10 pound break from #4 French Light, 11 pounds off his race in the Kiser and beat Kiser winner Bodes Well by 5 lengths last year in Georgia over soft turf means this runner has a chance.

#6 The Mean Queen (129 - 147) Jockey Garner, who won this race the last 2 years, was assigned to ride this one by trainer Brion because she has a soft mouth and Garner knows how to get the best response (sans whip late). Mr. Gallo says she would be 157 high weight but gets a 10 pound sex allowance.

#7 Recent Revelations (114 Irish rating - 142) Private purchase by a Nashville owners group trained by Ricky Hendriks from the suspended Gordon Elliot barn. Ricky has done well with these purchases in the past (Surprising Soul). The soft turf may limit a fast pace and gives this one a chance. Ricky’s runners tend to run their best at first asking.

#8 Redicean (141 - 150) Highest rating and gets a 150 pound assignment. A real head scratcher. Drops 4 pounds from the Smithwick but the extra distance and soft ground makes this a difficult assignment.

Race shape will have #3 Baltimore Bucko go to the front with #6 The Mean Queen close behind. Will these 2 push each other too fast too early leaving the door open for a late runner? It is entirely possible since Garner will not try to restrain #6 The Mean Queen because of her soft mouth. So the best closers are the Irv Naylor runners #4 French Light and #5 A Silent Prayer. #7 Recent Revelations also deserves consideration because of 142 pound assignment and experience with soft turf.

The Selections:

A) 4 (3rd) -5-7

B)

C) 6 (Won $3.60) -2-3 (2nd)

Good luck at the races!