8/28: Saratoga (Day 33 ~ 152nd Travers)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: 43rd Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Pretty paceless group and note that everyone in the field comes off Lasix except favored Viadera..

Most Likely: #3 Viadera 8-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #6 Kalifornia Queen 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Platinum Paynter 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Tamahere 7-2 4th


5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Whittington Park 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #6 Brady's Legacy 3-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Bointheback 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Miracle Nicky 8-1 8th


6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Colton's Command 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Shiraz 3-1 9th
Best Value: #10 Christopher 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Big Package 5-2 WON ($7.40)


7th: 43rd Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Gamine 3-5 WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #3 Casual 15-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Ce Ce 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lake Avenue 12-1 2nd


P4 Grid:

4: 3-5-6 (A), 1-2-4 (B), - (C)
5: 4 (A), - (B), 6-9 (C)
6: 7-9-10 (A), 1-11 (B), - (C)
7: 1-3 (A), 7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x1x5x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
All A's: 3x1x3x2 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup #1 (6-9 in 5th): 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (3/4,5/2,4,5,11,12/1) Paid $17.25


8th: 42nd Forego (G1), 4+, 7f (All G1 P5, P3, DD)

Second of the G1 7f trio and Yaupon figures controlling speed. 7th furlong the only question. Mind Control ultra consistent and well proven at trip and on strip. Chance It (20-1) is the price to play coming up from Florida in Summit of Speed style. Whitmore always fires..

Most Likely: #4 Mind Control 7-2 4th
Best Value: #6 Chance It 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Yaupon 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Whitmore 4-1 5th


9th: 37th Allen Jerkens (G1), 3yo, 7f (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Life Is Good gets advantage of outside open air for stalking trip v. Jackie's Warrior who may also deal early with forced-to-go Drain the Clock. Following Sea turns back and could be beneficiary of garden trip behind the pace-interested trio. This should be quite a spectacle..

Most Likely: #6 Life Is Good 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Following Sea 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Jackie's Warrior 1-1 WON ($5.10)


P4 Grid:

6: 7-9-10 (A), 1-11 (B), - (C)
7: 1 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-6-7 (A), - (B), 1-2-3-5 (C)
9: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x3x3 = $45 ($27.50 for each .50)
All A's: 3x1x3x3 = 27 x .50 = $13.50
Backup (1-2-3-5 in 8th): 3x1x4x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$1 Pick-4 (2,4,5,11,12/1/7/2) Paid $46.50 ($23.25 for .50)


10th: 72nd Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-4+, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

This very well could turn out to be the best race of the day. Letruska and As Time Goes By are the speeds and one or the other could survive, while back-to-dirt Harvey's Lil Goil and ultra consistent Royal Flag are the midpack pouncers at square prices. And there are certainly others for which to make a case. Superb event..

Most Likely: #2 As Time Goes By 6-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Harvey's Lil Goil 8-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Letruska 6-5 WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #5 Royal Flag 10-1 3rd


11th: 47th Sword Dancer (G1), 4+, 12f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Tribhuvan 2-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Japan 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Gufo 3-1 WON ($7.10)
Super Add: #7 Cross Border 4-1 3rd


12th: 152nd Travers (G1), 3yo, 10f (DD)

If you look to conjure a scenario to beat Essential Quality, it seem Midnight Bourbon wiring is the one. After that, it's hard to deny the nearly perfect Tapit colt here..

Most Likely: #2 Essential Quality 4-5 WON ($2.90)
Next Best: #1 Midnight Bourbon 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Masqueparade 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Dynamic One 6-1 7th


P5 Grid:

8: 4-6-7 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
9: 2-4-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-8 (A), 5-6 (B), 3-4-9 (C)
11: 1-6 (A), 2 (B), 3-7 (C)
12: 2 (A), - (B), 1 (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x3x4x3x1 = 180 x .50 = $90
All A's: 3x3x2x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $27 (3-4-9) + $18 (3-7)

$0.50 Pick-5 (7/2/6/2/2) Paid $73.62


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[Kal]

Is the pick #3 correct. In the selections for that race #3 is not shown.
Just 2-1-6-4.???

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Kal

Is the pick #3 correct. In the selections for that race #3 is not shown. Just 2-1-6-4.???

Kal.. Yes. 2-1-6-4. Fixed the 2. G/L today!

[casp0555]

The Forego may have been the spectacle , I'd vote for a good photo of that for an Eclipse

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by casp0555

The Forego may have been the spectacle , I'd vote for a good photo of that for an Eclipse

There already was one when Whereshetoldmetogo did it to Firenze Fire in the 2018 Gallant Bob..

Nikki Sherman's below was the best but wasn't submitted. Found the 2nd one below that I'd never seen before too..

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by Kasept

There already was one when Whereshetoldmetogo did it to Firenze Fire in the 2018 Gallant Bob..

I thought I had seen a photo like that but couldn't recall which horses were involved

[hi_im_god]

The slo-mo on FSN was epic. Grabbed Yaupon’s bridle at one point.

Firenze Fire looked to me like he would have passed Yaupon if not for the distraction. I won’t argue if anyone disagrees.

[ninetoone]

Looked to me like he had just put his nose in front when he went Tyson/Holyfield on him. I had a large bet on FF...it was a painful, hilarious loss that I won't soon forget. It was hard not to laugh...the crowd where I was sitting was absolutely cracking up....

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

The slo-mo on FSN was epic. Grabbed Yaupon’s bridle at one point.

Firenze Fire looked to me like he would have passed Yaupon if not for the distraction. I won’t argue if anyone disagrees.

I bet Yaupon but am positive he was beat before FF pulled that stunt. Terrific job by jocks to maintain balance and keep going. Rest of field not even close enough to take advantage.