10/23: KEE (5th-10th); BEL ($47k P6 C/O; 5th-10th); X-C P5

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Not the easiest start to P6 C/O skein with non-descript crowd of state-bred babies with key players exiting the same event that produced Sundaeswithsandy on 9/23 where Excursioniste, Maseta and Sir John chased him home. New face Nikostratos the price key with Jonathon Thomas owning gaudy debut numbers going long..

Best Value: #8 Nikostratos 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Maseta 4-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Desert Tornado 6-1 9th
Super Add: #12 Excursioniste 2-1 3rd


6th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f-Inner (P6, P3, DD)

One third of this tough starter field (1 Determined Fury; 5 Ring of Fire; 7 Stanhope; 8 Montatham) exit 7f-T version of this S/ALW where pace collapsed and they are the key players coming back in here. Stanhope set that hot pace and finished 11th, Ring of Fire and Determined Fury stalked and finished with interest to be 2nd & 3rd; Montatham closed from near last, far back, to be 4th. Though they'll go 1f shorter, doesn't appear to be as much pace involved..

Most Likely: #5 Ring of Fire 6-1 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #4 King Moonracer 8-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Determined Fury 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Montatham 8-1 10th


7th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

More state-breds, this time going short on the main, and it's another murky picture. At least half the field (3-5-6-8-9) feels eligible for success based on experience (3-6-8), positive clocker observations (firsters 5-9) and pedigree (8), but other debuting runners (1-4-7) come from quality outfits (McPeek, Motion, Micelli). Very difficult start to the P4..

Most Likely: #6 Doc Doc Rock 5-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Summer Snow 8-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Glittering Prize 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Liberty Flame 15-1 2nd


8th: Noble Damsel (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Cross Country P5 starts here ~ and it's a difficult sequence. Plenty of speed lines up here..

Most Likely: #6 Love and Thunder 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 High Opinion 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Flower Point 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Tamahere 9-5 5th


CROSS COUNTRY P5 Grid:

BEL 8: 2-3-6 (A), - (B), 5-10 (C)
KEE 8: 2-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
BEL 9: 8-9 (A), - (B), 2-5-11 (C)
KEE 9: 3-11 (A), 7-13 (B), - (C)
KEE 10: 7-12 (A), 10 (B), 4-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $16 (5-10) + $36 (2-5-11) + $36 (4-5-6)


9th: Hill Prince (G2), 3yo, 9f-Inner (DD)

Best Value: #8 Sifting Sands 8-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Public Sector 5-2 WON ($8.60)
Exotics Use: #11 Soldier Rising 3-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Slicked Back 8-1 8th


10th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f

Yeesh. Completes the trifecta of eye-crossing state-bred maiden events in the P6..

Most Likely: #4 Silver Fist 7-2 WON ($7.20)
Next Best: #9 Kant Hurry Love 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 The Honorable Ruth 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Laochi 5-1 4th


P6 Grid:

5: 6-8 (A), - (B), 5 (C)
6: 4-5 (A), 1 (B), 8 (C)
7: 6-8 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
8: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 8 (A), 9 (B), 11 (C)
10: 4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x3x2x2x2x2 = $96
All A's: 2x2x2x2x1x2 = $32
Backups: $16 (5) + $16 (8) + $16 (3) + $32 (11)


P5 Grid:

6: 4-5 (A), 1-8 (B), 12 (C)
7: 6-8 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
8: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 8-9-11 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
10: 4-9 (A), - (B), 1-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x2x5x2 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backups: $12 (12) + $12 (3) + $24 (1-8)


P4 Grid:

7: 3-6-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
9: 8-9-11 (A), 2-5 (B), - (C)
10: 4-9 (A), 1-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x5x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P6, $3 Turf P3, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Caveat Emptor 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 War Machine 7-2 WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #2 Assiduously 12-1 9th
Exotics Use: #12 Seven Channels 5-1 8th


$3 P3 Grid:

5: 5 (A), 2-7 (B), 12 (C)
8: 2-7 (A), - (B), 5-11 (C)
10: 7-10-12 (A), - (B), 4-5-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3 = 18 x $3 = $54
All A's: 1x2x3 = 6 x $3 = $18
Backups: $18 (12) + $18 (5-11) + $18 (4-5-6)


6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Beau Luminarie 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #4 Mystic Night 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Bourbon Calling 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Candy Tycoon 4-1 7th


7th: Perryville, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Seems like they'll duel, but if Boca Boy or Cool Quest get away easily early, one or the other will wire. Pipeline can sit behind and pounce and I wouldn't be totally against Soup and Sandwich who could get a nice inside/outside voyage as well..

Most Likely: #6 Pipeline 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Soup and Sandwich 3-1 9th
Best Value: #2 Boca Boy 12-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Cool Quest 4-1 6th


8th: ALW/C, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Really attractive wagering affair..

Most Likely: #7 Argentello 8-1 7th
Best Value: #2 Beat Le Bon 30-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Mr Dumas 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Bizzee Channel 5-1 6th


9th: Raven Run (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (DD)

Miss Speedy has been very good in Toronto on the synthetic and there is a hidden plus to Ontario-standing sire Souper Speedy: 31% with his dirt runners when they get opportunities (77 starts). 6-1 but may get lost on this board and candidate to leap forward first time on the main..

Best Value: #11 Miss Speedy 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Souper Sensational 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #13 Obligatory 3-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Cilla 8-1 3rd


10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (Hi-5)

There's a case that Nice Ace sets the pace and wins race..

Best Value: #12 Nice Ace 15-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Wing Commander 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Pine Knoll 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Ginsburned 5-1 5th


P5 Grid:

6: 2 (A), - (B), 4 (C)
7: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), 8 (C)
8: 2-7 (A), - (B), 5-11 (C)
9: 3-11 (A), 7-13 (B), - (C)
10: 7-10-12 (A), 4-5-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $18 (8) + $18 (5-11)


P4 Grid:

7: 1-2-6 (A), - (B), 8 (C)
8: 2-7 (A), - (B), 5-11 (C)
9: 3-11 (A), 7-13 (B), - (C)
10: 7-10-12 (A), 4-5-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backups: $6 (8) + $18 (5-11)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

[knickslions2]

All that speed in Keeneland 8th and I get wired for second. Brutal

[tector]

Steve, don't know that I ever thanked you for your picks.

Thank you.

[jms62]

Like Cilla and Obligatory/Cilla Exacta as backup

[jms62]

Thought I was home