2/18: Fair Grounds ~ Derby Preview Day (4th-13th)

[Kasept]

FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

2nd timer Merlazza from Cox will take some beating here. Ornately (Asmussen) and New Beat (Norm Casse) are the firsters that merit looks and Kenneally appears sneaky with Saratoga first out returnee My Sweet Summer (Accelerate) SCR'D who is a half to famously overbet Derby runner (and 3x stake winner) My Boy Jack..

Most Likely: #2 Merlazza 5-2 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #4 Ornately 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 New Beat 12-1 11th
Exotics Use: #5 Corsini 12-1 5th


5th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Looks like Cox over Asmussen again here with Bishops Bay coming in hot for debut with Jackie's Warrior sibling Ocean City (American Pharoah) owning a two turn look. Little Al introduces Bettera whose dam was a quick, sprinty stake winner..

Most Likely: #5 Bishops Bay 3-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #7 Bettera 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Ocean City 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Quaternion 6-1 5th


6th: Al Stall Memorial, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Trail Ridge Road 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 My Philly Twirl 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Soft Touch 6-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Clara Peters 4-1 8th


7th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Gametime Gladiator 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Woodythebidspotter 7-2 10th
Best Value: #9 Kigali 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 (POE) Baseline Beater 9-2 WON ($6.60)/2nd


8th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Has the makings of an important ALW with Banishing (5-2) getting delayed seasonal debut while running into Asmussen debut sparkler First Defender (3-1). Contention runs deep here with Cherie offering rough trip winner Cagliostro (8-1) and Cox sending capable Tapit Shoes (9-2)..

Most Likely: #5 First Defender 3-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Banishing 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Cagliostro 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Tapit Shoes 9-2 3rd


P5 Grid:

4: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4-6-7 (A), 2-3-5 (B), 1-8 (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x1x6x4x4 = $96 ($48 for .50)
All A's: 1x1x3x2x2 = $12 ($6 for .50)
Backup: 1x1x2x2x2 = $8 ($4 for .50)


P4 Grid:

5: 5 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 4-6-7 (A), 2-3-5 (B), 1-8 (C)
7: 6-7 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)
8: 5-6 (A), 1-4 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x6x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 1x3x2x2 = $12 ($6 for .50)
Backup: 1x1x2x2x2 = $8 ($4 for .50)


9th: Col. Power, 4+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Sprinters always the most likely to run top effort fresh and there are 5 coming into this off breaks. Angaston has run just once since August '21, but has been sitting on go since early January. Both Stalls (Pyron/Evan Sing) look eligible and All in Sync appears to have plenty of upside..

Most Likely: #7 Angaston 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Evan Sing 5-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #4 Pyron 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 All in Sync 9-2 8th


10th: Mineshaft (G3), 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Bret Calhoun holds the key to this with both Mr. Wireless & Run Classic offering chances from on and near the pace. As an aside, between this field and the Razorback, the Handicap Division isn't so 'desperate and dateless' (for those that remember the great WLW phone-in mating game)..

Most Likely: #8 Mr. Wireless 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Run Classic 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Hoist the Gold 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Big Blue Line 8-1 7th


P4 Grid:

7: 6-7 (A), 1-9 (B), - (C)
8: 5-6 (A), - (B), 1-4 (C)
9: 3-4-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-8 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


11th: Fair Grounds (G3), 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Two Emmys 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #3 Calvary Charge 6-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Gentle Soul 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Bay Street Money 6-1 4th


12th: Rachel Alexandra (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

All indications are that Hoosier Philly is ready to go and this looks like a good quality check for Amoss charge in seasonal debut with established Chop Chop and nice Vahva who was compromised last time..

Most Likely: #2 Hoosier Philly 6-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Vahva 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Chop Chop 8-5 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Pretty Mischievous 9-2 WON ($18.20)


13th: Risen Star (G3), 3yo, 9f

Increase of KY Derby points seems to be responsible for 14 turning up here and an intriguing group it is. Harlocap is the first Baffert trainee to be transferred and note the stiff 6f (1:11.4) drill he received prior to shipping. Has made steady progress in first 3 starts, should be prominent throughout under Johnny and may emulate Epicenter effort in this a year ago. Tapit's Conquest price likely to be cut in half given his status as the mojo horse. Desormeaux always seems to make his presence felt in this series and Single Ruler gets cozy draw for a change and can juice the exotics, or more. Crupi is edging closer to a win with latest being a significant improvement that brings him here measuring fastest on some metrics including Thoro-Graph. Two Phil's was my Lecomte play and want to give him another chance, though recent drill was noted as backwards (fast early, slow late) by top morning man McGoey. Don't be afraid to take a swing here with many, many viable options and combos..

Most Likely: #5 Harlocap 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Tapit's Conquest 6-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Single Ruler 30-1 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Crupi 15-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Two Phil's 8-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

9: 3-4-7-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-8 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
11: 2-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 5-8 (A), 2-10-12-13 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x3x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 4x2x3x1x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup: 4x2x3x1x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-5 in 10th)


P4 Grid:

10: 2-8 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 2 (A), - (B), - (C)
13: 2-5-8-12 (A), 10-13 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x1x6 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 2x3x1x4 = 24 x .50 = $12


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

FG SCR/CHG'S

[moses]

Good luck Steve. The Risen Star, I give Crupi and Curly Jack big chances. Curious to see how the pace unfolds.