9/9: KY Downs (Day 5); CNL (Derby); DMR (Debutante)

[Kasept]

KENTUCKY DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Lilac Girl 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Mo Bills 15-1 WON ($8.58)
Next Best: #11 Frontal Attack 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Lemon Bomb 8-1 9th
Super Add: #9 Million Dollar Cat 20-1 11th


5th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Torigo 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Auden 9-2 6th
Next Best: #11 Brigade Commander 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Earl of Dassel 30-1 5th


6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 10.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Dripping Gold 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 O P Firecracker 12-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Corelli 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Henley's Joy 6-1 11th


7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Frothy 8-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Le Beau 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Heartstruck 12-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Hola Gata 7-2 WON ($11.50)


8th: Franklin-Simpson (G2), 3yo, 6.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Frosted Departure 12-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Sweet Cherry Pie 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Playlist 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Private Creed 9-2 WON ($14.02)


P5 Grid:

4: 3-6-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2 (A), - (B), 9 (C)
6: 2-4-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-4 (A), 5-8 (B), - (C)
8: 1-7 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x1x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-C-A-A-A): 3x1x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (9 in 5th)


9th: Ladies Turf (G3), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Sparkle Blue 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 New Year's Eve 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Haughty 4-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Querobin Dourada 15-1 5th


P4 Grid:

6: 2-4-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 2-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 1-7 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
9: 2-6-7 (A), 4-5 (B), 1-3 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (A-A-A-C): 3x2x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12 (1-3 in 9th)


10th: Turf Sprint (G2), 3+, 6f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Cogburn 4-1 5th
Next Best: #1 One Timer 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Olympic Runner 15-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Bad Beat Brian 10-1 3rd


11th: Ladies Turf Sprint (G2), F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Quaria Comet 5-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Our Flash Drive 10-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Wakanaka 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Gal in a Rush Late SCR


12th: Kentucky Turf Cup (G2), 3+, 12f-T (Hi-5)

Best Value: #8 Never Explain 8-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Red Knight 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Verstappen 9-2 5th
Super Add: #1 Foreign Relations 12-1 10th


P5 Grid:

8: 1-7 (A), 2-6 (B), - (C)
9: 6-7 (A), 2 (B), 4-5 (C)
10: 1-7 (A), - (B), 3-4 (C)
11: 2-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (A-C-A-A-A): 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (4-5 in 9th)
Backup (A-A-C-A-A): 2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (3-4 in 10th)


P4 Grid:

9: 2-6-7 (A), 4-5 (B), - (C)
10: 1-7 (A), 3-4 (B), - (C)
11: 2-3-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 2-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x4x3x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18



COLONIAL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


10th (6:20pm ET): Virginia Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f-T (DD)

Best Value: #9 Integration 8-1 WON ($15.40)
Next Best: #11 Program Trading 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Gigante 6-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Activist Investing 10-1 7th



DEL MAR


POST-SCRATCHES


10th (8:59pm ET): Del Mar Debutante (G1), 2yo-F, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #6 Chatalas 5-1 4th
Best Value: #13 Laurent 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Tamara 7-2 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #12 Gate to Paradise 20-1 3rd


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

KD SCR/CHG'S

[Sethcarter]

Thanks Steve... the shows have been so awesome and very informative. Can I ask, on the show related to the NFL, I believe Mr. Hall references how he uses the power ratings. Can I ask, what power ratings he referenced again???

[Kasept]

CNL SCR/CHG'S

[fantini33]

Olympic Runner ran a sneaky strong race yesterday and is a horse we will get at a price before the turf season closes. Based on the track at KD yesterday Timeform is likely to have that as a bright red (very forward favoring track). Olympic Runner made up SIGNIFICANT ground against that and it even looked for a stride or two that Castellano stopped riding (though it may have been that slight little turn in mid stretch that caused him to steer rather than ride) . My guess is that bettors will be dismissive of the race because of the result (blanket finish, track, winner, etc). We will get a price in the next start or two.

Thanks for all that you do Steve!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Olympic Runner ran a sneaky strong race yesterday and is a horse we will get at a price before the turf season closes. Based on the track at KD yesterday Timeform is likely to have that as a bright red (very forward favoring track). Olympic Runner made up SIGNIFICANT ground against that and it even looked for a stride or two that Castellano stopped riding (though it may have been that slight little turn in mid stretch that caused him to steer rather than ride) . My guess is that bettors will be dismissive of the race because of the result (blanket finish, track, winner, etc). We will get a price in the next start or two.

Thanks for all that you do Steve!

TP.. THX and agree 100%.. Gary Barber felt same way too.