5/17-18 (PIM): 149th Preakness Weekend

[Kasept]

HI HO PIMLICO!


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Talented Man 12-1 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #7 Rock the Boat 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Swill 8-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Dr Oseran 5-2 2nd


5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 No Easy Days 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Golden Candy 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Heldish 8-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Point Dunne 7-2 WON ($6.40)


6th: MSW, 3-5yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Strange group with major players returning in new barns from year layoffs. Eff Thirty Five from Brittany Russell gets grass try and if amenable ~ siblings did well on synthetic ~ has race two back that could win here. 10-1 to find out..

Best Value: #7 Eff Thirty Five 10-1 WON ($28.80)
Next Best: #12 Border War 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Wow Whata Party 15-1 9th
Super Add: #14 Mr Flowers 6-1 7th


7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Surya 6-1 7th
Best Value: #12 Thegirlfromireland 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #11 Sun Bee 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Super Add: #14 Galilei 10-1 4th


P4 Grid:

4: 6-7 (A), 1-5 (B), - (C)
5: 7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 7-12 (A), 8-14 (B), - (C)
7: 4-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24


8th: Allaire Du Pont, F&M-3+, 9f (.20 Rainbow 6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Shotgun Hottie 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #4 Musical Mischief 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Julia Shining 5-2 4th
Super Add: #7 Intrepid Dream 8-1 7th


9th: Hilltop, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Just Better 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 She Feels Pretty 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Expatriate 6-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Royal Wintour 3-1 4th


P5 Grid:

5: 7-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 7-12 (A), 8-14 (B), - (C)
7: 4-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 8 (A), 4 (B), 1-7 (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 2x2x3x2x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (1-7 in 8th)


P4 Grid:

6: 7-12 (A), 8-14 (B), - (C)
7: 4-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-8 (A), 1 (B), 7 (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACA): 2x3x1x3 = 18 x .50 = $9 (7 in 8th)

$0.50 Pick 4 (7/2,6,8,10,11,13/6,8/6,7,9,10) Paid $65.30


10th: Miss Preakness (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (.50/12% Takeout 2-Day P5, P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Carmelina 12-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Lady Moscato 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Discreet Ops 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Youalmosthadme 2-1 2nd


2-Day P5 Grid:

FRI 10: 5-7 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C) ~ Miss Preakness
FRI 12: 2-7 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C) ~ Pimlico Special
SAT 8: 4-6 (A), - (B), 1-7 (C) ~ MD Sprint
SAT 10: 8-10 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Sir Barton
SAT 13: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Preakness

Simple (A+B): 4x4x2x2x3 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AACAA): 2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-7 in SAT 10th)


11th: The Very One, F&M-3+, 5f-T (P4,

Most Likely: #8 ALL THAT MAGIC 5-1 10th
Best Value: #7 Bosserati 15-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Queen of the Mud 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Lily Simone 30-1 8th


2-Day P5 Grid:

FRI 11: 8 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ The Very One
FRI 13: 5-7 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C) ~ Black-Eyed Susan
SAT 11: 1-12 (A), 8-11 (B), - (C) ~ Jim McKay T/S
SAT 12: 5-9-10 (A), - (B), 1-3-12 (C) ~ Dinner Party
SAT 13: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C) ~ Preakness

Simple (A+B): 1x4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 1x2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 1x2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-3-12 in SAT 12th)


P5 Grid:

7: 4-11-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 4-8 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
9: 3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-7 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C)
11: 8 (A), - (B), 7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAAAC): 3x2x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18 (4 in 11th)


12th: Pimlico Special (G3), 3+, 9.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Kingsbarns 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Be Better 10-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Red Route One 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Royal Ship 12-1 -


13th: Black-Eyed Susan (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (BES/Preakness DBL, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Gun Song 9-2 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #7 Corposo 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Lemon Muffin 4-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Ringy Dingy 10-1 6th


Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness DBL

FRI 13: 5-7 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)
SAT 13: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x3 = 6 x $10 = $60 (5-7 with 3-5-7)
Backup (CA): 2x3 = 6 x $4 = $24 (2-3 with 2-3-7)


P5 Grid:

9: 3-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-7 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C)
11: 8 (A), - (B), 7 (C)
12: 2-7 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
13: 2-3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x1x4x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 3x2x1x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (AACAA): 3x2x1x2x4 = 48 x .50 = $24 (7 in 11th)


P4 Grid:

10: 5-7 (A), 3-10 (B), - (C)
11: 4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 2-7 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
13: 2-3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x4 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 2x2x2x4 = 32 x .50 = $16


14th:

Most Likely: #4 Wonderful Justice 9-5 4th
Next Best: #10 The Addison Pour 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Extrasexybigdaddee 4-1 5th


P4 Grid:

11: 4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 2-7 (A), 5-6 (B), - (C)
13: 2-3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
14: 4-10 (A), 3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

PIM SCR/CHG'S

[moses]

Good luck Steve.

For the Sir Barton, is there any way that Corporate Power goes off as the favorite? He is not a bad horse but it looks like it is a struggle to get him running. His only win came in a maiden race where it looked like he was going to hang and then re-engaged when a horse tried to pass him on the outside. Maybe the blinkers help with that…but it’s not like Shug has a great track record adding blinkers. Tuscan Sky will almost definitely be the favorite and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him close to even money, especially if it’s a wet track.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by moses

Good luck Steve.

For the Sir Barton, is there any way that Corporate Power goes off as the favorite? He is not a bad horse but it looks like it is a struggle to get him running. His only win came in a maiden race where it looked like he was going to hang and then re-engaged when a horse tried to pass him on the outside. Maybe the blinkers help with that…but it’s not like Shug has a great track record adding blinkers. Tuscan Sky will almost definitely be the favorite and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him close to even money, especially if it’s a wet track.

Agreed. Would be surprised if Corporate Power went favored too. Tuscan Gold has a pace edge. Nick made a big case for Imperial Gun. It's a funky group. Amoss horse looks emergent. Circle P and Real Macho have efforts that could fit. McPeek told me yesterday his horse talent but needs racing. I'm not convinced on any particular result, but found myself relying on Nick's approach.. G/L!

[Kasept]

HI HO PIMLICO!


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, 3-5yo, 5f-OFF (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Irish Heartbeat 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #4 Master of Malice 8-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Gift Exchange 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Beltane 12-1 2nd


2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Porquerolles 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #4 Breakwater 3-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Desvio 15-1 WON ($79.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Chelonian 5-1 5th


3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Whenlovetakesover 6-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Mirahmadi 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Nasty Habit 9-2 WON ($14.60)
Super Add: #5 Magic Express 2-1 2nd


4th: Skipat, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Disco Ebo 5-2 5th
Best Value: #2 Late Frost 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Apple Picker 7-5 WON ($8.40)
Super Add: #7 Swall 10-1 2nd


5th: MSW, F&M/3-5yo, 5f-OFF (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Rye Smile 5-2 6th
Next Best: #2 Marian Cross SCR
Exotics Use: #8 Up for It 6-1 4th
Super Add: #5 The Amazing Mizzen 8-1 3rd


P5 Grid:

1: 1-4-8-10 (A), - (B), - (C)
2: 2-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 4x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


P4 Grid:

2: 2-4-9 (A), - (B), - (C)
3: 1-2 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 2-3 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x2x2x3 = $36 ($18 for .50)


6th: Chick Lang (G3), 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Petingas Twin 5-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Catahoula Moon 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Cats by Five 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Frost Free 2-1 WON ($5.60)


7th: Gallorette (G3), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Fluffy Socks 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #3 Blissful 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Tequilera 8-1 3rd


P4 Grid:

4: 2-3-4 (A), - (B), - (C)
5: 2-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 1-2-3-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 3x3x5x1 = $45 ($22.50 for .50)


8th: Maryland Sprint (G3), 3+, 6f (.20 Rainbow 6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Prince of Jericho 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Jaxon Traveler 6-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Coastal Mission 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Bourbon Bash 6-1 6th


9th: James W. Murphy, 3yo, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Crystal Quest 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Fulmineo 9-2 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #5 Speedyness 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Massif 20-1 4th


P4 Grid:

5: 2-7-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 2-3-7 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
7: 7 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)
8: 4-6 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
9: 7-12 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x5x1x2x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 3x3x1x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACAA): 3x3x2x2x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (3-5 in 7th)


P4 Grid:

6: 1-2-3-6-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 7 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)
8: 4-6 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
9: 7-12 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x4x4 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A's: 5x1x2x2 = 20 x .50 = $10
Backup (AACAA): 5x2x2x2 = 40 x .50 = $20 (3-5 in 7th)


10th: Sir Barton-R, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Feels like 6 of these (2-5-6-7-8-10) are capable of winning..

Most Likely: #10 Imperial Gun 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Corporate Power 9-5 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #7 Mighty Message SCR
Exotics Use: #3 Circle P 20-1 7th


11th: Jim McKay Turf Sprint, 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Grooms All Bizness 8-1 WON ($13.60)
Next Best: #12 Beer Can Man 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Boat's a Rockin 6-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Witty 9-2 2nd


P5 Grid:

7: 7 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)
8: 4-6 (A), 1-7 (B), - (C)
9: 7-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 5-7-10 (A), 2-3 (B), - (C)
11: 1-8-12 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x4x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 1x2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAAA): 2x2x2x3x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 (3-5 in 7th)


12th: Dinner Party (G3), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #9 Beatbox 5-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Running Bee 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Emmanuel SCR
Super Add: #2 English Bee 15-1 7th


13th: 149th Preakness Stakes (G1), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Hi-5)

One storyline going into this week was finding reasons to play against Muth and the assumption that Mystik Dan wouldn't get as perfect a scenario/trip as he did two weeks ago. But with the erstwhile favorite absent and the Derby winner inheriting the role of favorite, the race has become more quizzical. The most apparent outcome feels like the 3 Derby exiters and Chad Brown Preakness profiler Tuscan Gold as the win candidates. I don't have a firm opinion going in, so best price player Just Steel emerges as the key: 7 with 2-3-5-9 for me..

Revised Preakness ML

1: Mugatu 20-1
2: Uncle Heavy 20-1
3: Catching Freedom 7-2
5: Mystik Dan 8-5
6: Seize the Grey 12-1
7: Just Steel 12-1
8: Tuscan Gold 9-2
9: Imagination 3-1

Best Value: #7 Just Steel 12-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Mystik Dan 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Catching Freedom 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Tuscan Gold 8 -1 4th


Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness DBL

FRI 13: 5-7 (A), - (B), 2-3 (C)
SAT 13: 3-5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)

All A's: 2x3 = 6 x $10 = $60 (5-7 with 3-5-7)
Backup (CA): 2x3 = 6 x $4 = $24 (2-3 with 2-3-7)


P5 Grid:

9: 7-12 (A), 3-5 (B), - (C)
10: 10 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-8-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 5-9-10/SCR (A), - (B), 1-2-3 (C)
13: 5-7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x1x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AAACA): 2x1x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-3-12 in 12th)


P4 Grid:

10: 10 (A), - (B), 2-3-5-6 (C)
11: 1-8-12 (A), - (B), - (C)
12: 5-9-10/SCR (A), 1-2-3 (B), - (C)
13: 5-7 (A), 3-8 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x6x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 1x3x3x2 = 18 x .50 = $9
Backup (CAAA): 4x3x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36 (2-3-5-6 in 10th)


Good luck!
Steve

[Jerman]

We are all pulling for Fluffy Socks in race 7. Best of luck today. Stay dry

[Kasept]

PIM SCR/CHG'S