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#2
12-25-2006, 09:11 PM
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DA STOOPS
MIDNIGHT LUTE ARSON SQUAD SPRING AT LAST tossing both "Bro Derrick & Laytent Heat"
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"Change can be good, but constant change shows no direction" http://www.hickoryhillhoff.blogspot.com/ 
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#3
12-26-2006, 12:06 AM
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#4
12-26-2006, 12:14 AM
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had some time on my hands today so I wrote up some comments on the Malibu that I will post here.
(2) Arson Squad Horse has done little wrong, especially sprinting. Training well, Headley is great in this situation and this is a fast horse who can come from off the pace. He is very strong in the final stages of the race. As far as the pure sprinters in this race he looks the best to me. My only concern is that with the two post he gets a bad trip with all the speed crossing over in front of him. (5) Brother Derek He is simply the horse with the best natural speed and class in the field. Sprinting is a new game for him and you can never be quite sure how that transition will go. But, I think he’ll be able to cruise very close to the lead in this race and then when the real running starts, be able to get past any of the other speed horses in the race and he should be able to hold of the closers. I would respect him the most in here but he is not a sure thing by any means (7) Midnight Lute The Perryville win was big, very impressive, but since it came on the Poly I’m not sure if it is an aberration or a sign of a horse that has broken out and reached a new level. He is still lightly raced and is working up a storm on this track so I think he must be respected here. My guess is that the Keeneland race made him look better than he is. (6) Sailors Sunset If you throw out the Keeneland race his form looks great. This horse has a bit of appeal because of his price and because I think he’ll be in the mix. May not be a strong win candidate but no surprise for the other spots on the ticket with his best effort. (8) Da Stoops Fast but think he meets a similar fate as Latent Heat. He won’t be able to get the job done against these. Could be on the super ticket however. (12) Latent Heat A horse with real speed but, I don’t see him better than third in this race. He will have to use the gas to get the lead and against this field and from the twelve post that will take enough out of him that he will retreat. His best finishes have come against weaker and tiny fields where he was easily the controlling speed. Use in super. (13) Spring At Last This horse ran out of his mind last month in NY in an allowance race. Been working at Holly for O’Neil. Don’t know if he can transfer his form out to SA. It sometimes takes a few races for before they get fully acclimated. This is kind of a mystery horse in here, probably is no threat in this race from that post, but based on his last race and connections don’t want to toss out either. (9) Objective Showed real promise early in the year but then was sent to the bench after a poor finish. Returns in a G1 with an allowance race and three works under his belt. Not the worst stab in the world. Like when a trainer shows that kind of confidence. (10) It’s A Bird Another interesting price play. Some nice sprint wins in Florida and now the transfer out west to Sadler. Very fast five furlong workout last week, may be ready for a big effort and hit the board at a price. (1) Hyperbaric Not today, I’m not buying it. Might try to create a super ticket using some price horses like It's A Bird, Sailors Sunset, Spring At Last, or Objective
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#5
12-26-2006, 05:49 AM
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More later, but at first glance:
1. Midnight Lute 4-1 2. Brother Derek 7-2 A. Arson Squad 9-2 B. Spring at Last 8-1 LONGSHOT/EXOTICS ADD: Sailors Sunset 12-1
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
12-26-2006, 09:19 AM
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It is refreshing to see a 13 horse field for a Grade I event that is not a triple crown or breeders cup race. My selections in this race are Arson Squad and It's A Bird. I love the fact that Arson Squad can rate which is important because this race is full of speed and they are going to be crossing in front on him. I think he gets a trip along the rail behind several horses. IF there is an opening along the rail turning for home he is your winner. If he gets stopped then I have no clue who wins this race. A horse that also like is It's A Bird. So I am going to play both Arson Squad and It's A Bird.
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#7
12-26-2006, 09:46 AM
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1) Sailors Sunset- Proud Tower Too 2005 Deja Vu? Sure looks like it, coming into this in similar form. The quickest in here, only knows one way to go and its on top as far as he can. I wouldnt be surprised if some of the other early speeds take back and let the Sailor do his thing. Not the worst stab in the world and you will get your money's worth.
2) Latent Heat- Clearly the most talented of this group. Throw out his polycrap debacle and he has done nothing wrong with some very hefty numbers. Will be sitting just off the lead and should prove a handful in the stretch. 3) Da Stoops- One of the Bafferts in here. Like the other coming off a layoff and Baffert sports nice numbers with these types. Owns the tactical speed to be on or just off the pace. Should be right there. 4) Brother Derek- Classy lassy will find himself farther off the pace than ever before but can pass many in here to get in the number. Probable overlay but a must use in the lower rungs of exotics.
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#8
12-26-2006, 11:31 AM
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Exacta - Sailor's Sunset/Midnight Lute, Brother Derek, Arson Squad, Da Stoops
Exacta - Midnight Lute, Brother Derek, Arson Squad, Da Stoops/Sailor's Sunset Trifecta - Midnight Lute, Brother Derek, Arson Squad, Da Stoops/Midnight Lute, Brother Derek, Arson Squad, Da Stoops/Sailor's Sunset If I had the budget I'd also box the five of them in the super as I feel this is one of the rare times where a five horse box actually offers value.
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#9
12-26-2006, 12:40 PM
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#10
12-26-2006, 02:17 PM
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Have to wait to see if it is a fair track,or a freeway.I will not use S Sunset,B Derek,or L Heat (unless the track is concrete.)On a fair track,I will use
A SQU M LUTE S AT LAST if use 4,add D STOOPS if use 5,add N Soldier If nothing has won from off the pace(by the 6th race,) then I have to use L H,S S,and DA STOOPS.I know how pathetically speed favoring this track can play.
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#11
12-26-2006, 03:25 PM
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Monarcho Polo. Son of Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos, ridden today for the first time by the guy who rode his father to victory in the Derby (Jorge Chavez). On paper he looks real light and outclassed in today's Malibu. But I had to mention this very weird angle.
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