Saturday Santa Anita Race 7

PSH · #1 12-29-2006, 09:54 PM

Optari returns on the turf.
I know many have been waiting for his next race after being blocked the whole stretch at Hollywood in his US debut.

Listed 5-1 morning line. Maybe cut that in half and get 5-2....
Win and Place bet...

PSH

Scav · #2 12-29-2006, 09:57 PM

You beat me too it. I AM IN LOVE with that horse tomorrow. I am dropping in and try to recoup for a horrible December.

Will be singling on the end of a pick three and probably a large win wager on him...I love the switch to the mig

Scav · #3 12-29-2006, 10:02 PM

And I forgot to mention that they put TWO GREAT betting races before this race so I can go deep and hopefully grab a 15/1 in one of the legs

PSH · #4 12-29-2006, 10:12 PM

That 5th is very interesting MSW.

Is Time Squared worth the 1 million purchase price? 5-1 seems generous morning line....

My major play - probably 3/4 of my betting capital will be a win/place on Optari though. I think he can better his euro thorograph figs which should be good enough.

ArlJim78 · #5 12-29-2006, 10:29 PM

I just watched the replay of the stretch run by Optari when he was boxed in.
There is no doubt that he was severely restricted for the first half or so of the stretch run.

What would concern me however is that with about half a furlong to go the whole trap breaks apart giving him room, and he passes no one. In fact a horse that was running just to his outside actually pass him a little. I would have expected that since he hadn't been asked for his full run that he would have had a lot in reserve for that last moment. I didn't see any late burst.
It makes me wonder if his placing would have been much different even were he to have found a seam earlier.

just my observations.

Scav · #6 12-29-2006, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I just watched the replay of the stretch run by Optari when he was boxed in.
There is no doubt that he was severely restricted for the first half or so of the stretch run.

What would concern me however is that with about half a furlong to go the whole trap breaks apart giving him room, and he passes no one. In fact a horse that was running just to his outside actually pass him a little. I would have expected that since he hadn't been asked for his full run that he would have had a lot in reserve for that last moment. I didn't see any late burst.
It makes me wonder if his placing would have been much different even were he to have found a seam earlier.

just my observations.

Flores wrapped him up....hold on I will watch it again and get you numbers in the stretch that interferred with him again

Scav · #7 12-29-2006, 10:36 PM

A) horse was tired from being restrained and not be able to let loose.

B) 7 checked him and the 2 was drifting out, he was asked to split horses like 5 times

C) If Flores timed it right, he would have won that race by 5 lengths, he was locked and loaded. Mig will either shoot the rail or go 4 wide and win by 3-4

D) TRUST ME. UNLOAD AT WILL

ArlJim78 · #8 12-29-2006, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

A) horse was tired from being restrained and not be able to let loose.

B) 7 checked him and the 2 was drifting out, he was asked to split horses like 5 times

C) If Flores timed it right, he would have won that race by 5 lengths, he was locked and loaded. Mig will either shoot the rail or go 4 wide and win by 3-4

D) TRUST ME. UNLOAD AT WILL

No way does he win that race by five, under any circumstance.

Hey I know you're high on him, but I just wanted to throw my two cents in. In my view he is not the most likely winner tomorrow.

Scav · #9 12-29-2006, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

No way does he win that race by five, under any circumstance.

Hey I know you're high on him, but I just wanted to throw my two cents in. In my view he is not the most likely winner tomorrow.

Don't you wear glasses?

OH SNAP

ok, he wins by 3 lengths instead

Mig keeps him 2-3 deep and gets first run because he is THE MIG

blackthroatedwind · #10 12-29-2006, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Don't you wear glasses?

OH SNAP

ok, he wins by 3 lengths instead

Mig keeps him 2-3 deep and gets first run because he is THE MIG

I'm going to call Mig right now and tell him what kind of anchor he is being saddled with.

Scav · #11 12-29-2006, 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm going to call Mig right now and tell him what kind of anchor he is being saddled with.

absolutely hilarious

I love it

ArlJim78 · #12 12-29-2006, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Don't you wear glasses?

OH SNAP

ok, he wins by 3 lengths instead

Mig keeps him 2-3 deep and gets first run because he is THE MIG

No I don't.
Its got nothing to do with Mig.

So he gets first run this time. How do you know he has the kind of run that will win this race? You're guessing because you saw him boxed in for so long and you say he got tired. Well if he got tired from being held guess what? He will also get tired from being asked for run as well. I saw nothing in the tank at the end of that race to make me think I should load up. Especially since two horses return from that race that beat him last time, and there are several wild cards in there that could also upset the apple cart.

Scav · #13 12-29-2006, 11:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

No I don't.
Its got nothing to do with Mig.

So he gets first run this time. How do you know he has the kind of run that will win this race? You're guessing because you saw him boxed in for so long and you say he got tired. Well if he got tired from being held guess what? He will also get tired from being asked for run as well. I saw nothing in the tank at the end of that race to make me think I should load up. Especially since two horses return from that race that beat him last time, and there are several wild cards in there that could also upset the apple cart.

I am not apple picking tomorrow, I AM JUST PICKING. LOCKED AND LOADED. For fun I tell you

ArlJim78 · #14 12-29-2006, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I am not apple picking tomorrow, I AM JUST PICKING. LOCKED AND LOADED. For fun I tell you

Okay good luck then. I just don't see why you would be locked and loaded on this one. I won't have a dime on that horse to win.

PSH · #15 12-29-2006, 11:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I am not apple picking tomorrow, I AM JUST PICKING. LOCKED AND LOADED. For fun I tell you

Isn't this the horse that Frank Lyons picked out for the owners?
I remember how pissed he was on TVG when Flores got blocked the whole stretch and he said he never had a chance to win..
You could tell from his voice he totally expected a win...

Loaded and ready to fire...

Scav · #16 12-29-2006, 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Okay good luck then. I just don't see why you would be locked and loaded on this one. I won't have a dime on that horse to win.

in all seriousness, if you look at how he was moving, he was coming up to the turn pretty good and then Flores had to take a hold of him and then couldn't find a hole. For his first race here, I was impressed, and if he runs his euro number, he wins here.

I also like Freesgood a little here, look at that sneaky turf work two back

ArlJim78 · #17 12-29-2006, 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSH

Isn't this the horse that Frank Lyons picked out for the owners?
I remember how pissed he was on TVG when Flores got blocked the whole stretch and he said he never had a chance to win..
You could tell from his voice he totally expected a win...

Loaded and ready to fire...

All i'm trying to understand is, where does it say that if a horse has no racing room for part of the race, that he would have been the winner had he had room. Its not like he was in the midst of a rally and got cut off. Like I said earlier, when the box around him broke apart late in the race, he did not respond. If I were looking for some sign that being boxed in cost Optari that race, I would at least wanteded to see some late futile burst where he quickly makes up a few lengths when he has the chance. Contrary to that the horse looked like he was done.

Also that was his first mile trip after running in europe at six furlongs three times. To me he appeared head strong in the early going, necessitating the rider to really put on the brakes. This is perhaps why he had no late burst. This horse will need to relax a little more in my opinion to win at one mile.

Scav · #18 12-29-2006, 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

If I were looking for some sign that being boxed in cost Optari that race, I would at least wanteded to see some late futile burst where he quickly makes up a few lengths when he has the chance.

Ok, I agree with it BUT he was never allowed to stretch his legs after he had a full head of steam going into the turn, that is what I am really baseing this on.

When he had that opening, the 7 drifted down and the 2 drifted out thus cutting off any opportunity to stretch his legs

ArlJim78 · #19 12-29-2006, 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

in all seriousness, if you look at how he was moving, he was coming up to the turn pretty good and then Flores had to take a hold of him and then couldn't find a hole. For his first race here, I was impressed, and if he runs his euro number, he wins here.

I also like Freesgood a little here, look at that sneaky turf work two back

Don't be fooled by euro numbers from six furlong races.

You should be a little concerned about Freesgood here, in addition to others.
If he takes to the surface he could be a big factor.

Scav · #20 12-29-2006, 11:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Don't be fooled by euro numbers from six furlong races.

You should be a little concerned about Freesgood here, in addition to others.
If he takes to the surface he could be a big factor.

I talked about Freesgood, you see that work two back, he might make me change my pick three ticket now