CONTEST/SYMPOSIUM: SA Carryover

[Kasept]

As mentioned in Euro's Santa Anita Carryover thread, we're going to run a contest and 'thread symposium' on the monster P6 Wednesday at Arcadia.

Contest part is simple:

Spend MINIMUM $2,000-MAXIMUM $2,500..

Play one ticket or multiple tickets in the expense range..

Entries must be time-stamped by 30 minutes before post of SA 3rd.. No editing of plays..

Derby Trail Prize pack for P6 hit.. ATRAB t-shirts for 5 of 6 hits..


This thread can serve as the Symposium Thread while there will be a seperate Contest Entry thread... DRF's Andy Serling (our own BTW) will lead discussion/answer questions on the Symposium Thread about ticket structure, P6 strategies...

Enjoy...

[Sightseek]

Neat idea! I'm pretty much clueless, but I'll try at least.

[skippy3481]

sightseek we can team up surely our limited knowledge will allow us to hit like at least 1 race

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by skippy3481

sightseek we can team up surely our limited knowledge will allow us to hit like at least 1 race

The multi-ticket thing is what confuses me, but I wouldn't even know how to word a question on it. Philski explained and showed his ticket once on a forum I used to post more on and I still have nightmares about all of the numbers. The scary thing is I do a lot with numbers in my daily job.

[blackthroatedwind]

The gist of multi-tickets is to allow yourself a good chance to hit the Pick-6 if you are " very " right in five races and wrong in the other race, or maybe even four races if you are spending a lot of money.

Imagine you play the Pick-6 and in the first leg you think two horses look very strong and if you were going to spend a little more money you see a third you would at least like to use. Well, as you prefer the first two horses, you would not be spending your money well if you used this third idea for the same total dollars you used the on your " main " two selections. Thus you construct multiple tickets where on perhaps one major ticket you use all three but on smaller tickets you only use the two " main " selctions.

It's obviously more complicated as you go through more races but we can certainly discuss that. The basic formula is you have three lists, A horses, B horses and C horses. Every race CAN, but does not have to, have horses in each category. The construction from there is a MAIN ticket which includes A and B horses from every race and backup tickets which includes the C horses from one race and only the A horses from every other race. If you have C horses in each race you will have six back-up tickets.

The above can be further complicated with double backups as well. But, for now, we will stick to the single back-up concept.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The gist of multi-tickets is to allow yourself a good chance to hit the Pick-6 if you are " very " right in five races and wrong in the other race, or maybe even four races if you are spending a lot of money.

Imagine you play the Pick-6 and in the first leg you think two horses look very strong and if you were going to spend a little more money you see a third you would at least like to use. Well, as you prefer the first two horses, you would not be spending your money well if you used this third idea for the same total dollars you used the on your " main " two selections. Thus you construct multiple tickets where on perhaps one major ticket you use all three but on smaller tickets you only use the two " main " selctions.

It's obviously more complicated as you go through more races but we can certainly discuss that. The basic formula is you have three lists, A horses, B horses and C horses. Every race CAN, but does not have to, have horses in each category. The construction from there is a MAIN ticket which includes A and B horses from every race and backup tickets which includes the C horses from one race and only the A horses from every other race. If you have C horses in each race you will have six back-up tickets.

The above can be further complicated with double backups as well. But, for now, we will stick to the single back-up concept.

Thanks for the further explaination.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The gist of multi-tickets is to allow yourself a good chance to hit the Pick-6 if you are " very " right in five races and wrong in the other race, or maybe even four races if you are spending a lot of money.

Imagine you play the Pick-6 and in the first leg you think two horses look very strong and if you were going to spend a little more money you see a third you would at least like to use. Well, as you prefer the first two horses, you would not be spending your money well if you used this third idea for the same total dollars you used the on your " main " two selections. Thus you construct multiple tickets where on perhaps one major ticket you use all three but on smaller tickets you only use the two " main " selctions.

It's obviously more complicated as you go through more races but we can certainly discuss that. The basic formula is you have three lists, A horses, B horses and C horses. Every race CAN, but does not have to, have horses in each category. The construction from there is a MAIN ticket which includes A and B horses from every race and backup tickets which includes the C horses from one race and only the A horses from every other race. If you have C horses in each race you will have six back-up tickets.

The above can be further complicated with double backups as well. But, for now, we will stick to the single back-up concept.

My main confusion when trying to structure tickets like this is which horses to put in the B and C category. For instance, what category would you put these following examples in:

Horse 1 - First time turf starter that doesn't look particularly good unless he improves on the turf but has Prado aboard.

Horse 2 - 25/1 shot that you think is a huge overlay at those odds.

Horse 3 - 3/1 shot that you don't like at all.

Is 1 an example of what sort of horse you want on your C ticket or should that be a B? Do you play 3 on your C ticket or not at all?

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, a lot of it depends on how much money you are willing to invest. From there you figure out the cost difference in each race for elevating a horse from one list to another.

One thing to keep in mind is " value ". How much money does it make financial sense, from a value standpoint, to invest in a sequence that involves two 25-1 shots? For instance, suppose ( to keep it simple ), you were going to have a 25-1 shot as an A in both the first and second leg. Thus you would have a huge number of tickets generated off those two horses. Well, a $2 parlay on those two horses pays $1300. Can you honestly justify having even $48 worth of play off that combo? How about $128? There is something to be said for never including a Pick-6 combination where the parlay is over the total pool. Now, obviously things change in substantial carryovers, and the bigger your ticket the greater your scope, but there are a great deal of questions one needs to ask themself when seriously constructing tickets. Your ability to understand the answers to these things will ultimately simplify the decisions about which list to place horses on.

To repeat something I just said to Sightseek, Picking winners, or surviving races through selections is not that hard, but finding a way to get all the winners on one ticket is the hard part.

[AeWingnut]

heard that someone invested $20k in a pick 6 and got back $18k and they were lucky to get back the $18k cause there were a lot of favorites.

As a rule I don't play a pick 6 unless I can find three singles. sadly I have never been able to find three singles

BTW - Question. I often find myself wasting money in a race where I have no real opinion on any of the horses. This typically happens in small fields (8 or less). My current approach is to go as deep as possible (making it fit in my budget) or taking a stand and picking a logical single. Is this a correct approach?

[ceejay]

With a $2500 budget you don't need a single. Use multiple tickets. For example the Barry Meadow method 2x3x6x6x6x6 requiring 3 A choices-- any 3-- to win would cost $2452 on 42 tickets.

[blackthroatedwind]

Theoretically every decision you make is related to every race, as if you assume you are investing a finite amount of money, every horse you use is at the exclusion of another horse somewhere on the ticket. Thus, if you find a particularly puzzling race, you will obviously want to use as many entrants as possible, and thus have to figure out how to work that into your play.

On a simplistic level, suppose the race we are discussing has 8 horses, and let's also suppose there is another race where you are undecided about using 2 or 3 horses. Well, you can use all 8 and 2 in the other race for less than 7% more money than 5 and 3 in the other. Thus, you face a choice, and this may be one of the ones that decide whether or not you win.

Obviously that is an oversimplification, as there are six possible legs, but I just use it as an example. With multiple tickets, As - Bs - Cs, you can find ways to use many in a race while minimizing your investment.

[docicu3]

Steve and Andy I don't know how else to stimulate race discussion than to start threads for each race and then I'll post a ticket tomorrow AM. If I am in the wrong place for this I apologize......

Assuming PP's are actual numbers....

# 9 Mog First, anybody using Brisnet PP's there is an error where the first time out trip for Mog is missing from the PP's. The race (R8 3/3/06 @ SA) is somewhat relavant because A) He ran a (9) on Thorograph which is the best number for any horse in the race B) It's a sprint at Santa Anita a year ago.
I am not a William the 3RD jock fan but he is okay on a closer and will likely try the same strategy here with a race that 5,6,7,12 will likely come to the front.
SA workouts and the drop in class seal the deal. My Pick....

# 12 The Cat Did It Is getting major press with DRF Mr Free suggesting him as a single because he lost a stretch duel from the 3 hole but actually finished 6TH.
I think the same thing happens again with #10 Mog and perhaps #11 Ikuna Red. I think you have to use Cat in the PICK 6 but I won't single.

#3 Blazen Bunny Good speed numbers but too long between races. I can see ITM but needs a race IMO

#7 Heatherdoesn'tBluff Nice turf numbers but never has been on dirt so who knows how she'll really do here though Sire (Old Trieste) seems to imply decent dirt potential. The TGH sire info seems also to suggest a late maturing horse........the wild card in the race and may be my 3RD choice

So on this one 9-12 for sure......may use the 7 Thoughts folks????

[docicu3]

Another field with many contenders that "could" challenge the favorite Red Opal. I may use 4 because I think they are all legit.....

#12 Udridge A number of things seem to work in her favor for this lightly raced 5 year old who has won at a higher level recently, drew well on the outside, seems to be able to win in front or off the pace,has a nice bullet last workout, gets Migliore on Turf who seems to win on everything he touches the last week or so. Nice Thorograph pattern competitive with Red Opal......must use!!!!

#6 Red Opal Will get plenty of action for good reason. Best closer,TGH numbers there, Sadler,Gomez,workouts all here. For sure.....

#2 Mashina Intriquing play.......Obviously will try and steal this one by converting this 5 for 17 lifetime turf route specialist on Nakatani. The PP's seem to imply the horse is money for the first 6F's of every Turf route.....can he steal this. Sire: Vettori has very small but excellent improvement TGI for 5 year olds.....I am using her...

#5 Kendricks Patsy Steve Miyadi sends in scary closing monster with late numbers almost the same as Red Opal. Another trainer who's white hot using an under the radar turf route specialist from Northern California in a turf sprint. Kaenel has never ridden this horse or a single race at SA. I wonder whats up here????? Trainer has lots of new friends winning at 32% I think I'll use rather than weep!!!

Pick 6 play 2,5,6,12

12,2,6,5 Box(Tri)
12/6,2,5/6,2,5/all (super)

Two more races this afternoon.....the last two tonight!!!

I would love to hear from any of you should you see major flaws in thought process.

Ticket so far 7,9,12/2,5,6,12.........Race 5 MC 32K for 3 year olds

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Another field with many contenders that "could" challenge the favorite Red Opal. I may use 4 because I think they are all legit.....

#12 Udridge A number of things seem to work in her favor for this lightly raced 5 year old who has won at a higher level recently, drew well on the outside, seems to be able to win in front or off the pace,has a nice bullet last workout, gets Migliore on Turf who seems to win on everything he touches the last week or so. Nice Thorograph pattern competitive with Red Opal......must use!!!!

#6 Red Opal Will get plenty of action for good reason. Best closer,TGH numbers there, Sadler,Gomez,workouts all here. For sure.....

#2 Mashina Intriquing play.......Obviously will try and steal this one by converting this 5 for 17 lifetime turf route specialist on Nakatani. The PP's seem to imply the horse is money for the first 6F's of every Turf route.....can he steal this. Sire: Vettori has very small but excellent improvement TGI for 5 year olds.....I am using her...

#5 Kendricks Patsy Steve Miyadi sends in scary closing monster with late numbers almost the same as Red Opal. Another trainer who's white hot using an under the radar turf route specialist from Northern California in a turf sprint. Kaenel has never ridden this horse or a single race at SA. I wonder whats up here????? Trainer has lots of new friends winning at 32% I think I'll use rather than weep!!!

Pick 6 play 2,5,6,12

12,2,6,5 Box(Tri)
12/6,2,5/6,2,5/all (super)

Two more races this afternoon.....the last two tonight!!!

I would love to hear from any of you should you see major flaws in thought process.

Ticket so far 7,9,12/2,5,6,12.........Race 5 MC 32K for 3 year olds

I've had Red Opal on my watch list for a long time and am happy to see her returning. Looks like enough speed to close into, and I think she's the obvious pick.
Mashina cuts back from routes to a sprint. First time down the hill doesn't worry me with Cory aboard, and love the fact that he's 2 for 2 when riding this mare. Will be a factor as long as he doesn't try to dual with Udriga for the lead. Speaking of the 12, my only worry is the 6 week gap in works between Nov. 22nd and Jan 5th. Not sure if the horse is fit enough to take them wire to wire, which is what she'll have to do to win. Both Moogie and Evening Escort have some things to like, but I can't go more than 3 deep here, and may just use Red Opal and Mashina, leaving my pick 6 fate in the hands of Nakatani and Gomez.

[NTamm1215]

Using my handicapping process I came up with four horses in here who I gave the rating of "A." They were Mashina, Red Opal, Evening Escort, and Udriga. I eliminated Mashina because Kristin Mulhall is frigid right now and I feel there are better stretch runners in the race. I eliminated Evening Escort because in her three turf starts against older horses she has been handled very easily each time. The 3+ weeks of inactivity for an equally frigid Doug O'Neill is not positive in my opinion either.

Therefore I was left with Red Opal and Udriga. The prices on the two will be poor, as I'm sure they'll be the two faves. I dug a little deeper to find another horse who I thought might be a wild-card with a chance. There is no doubt that Udriga's pace is going to be rapid, so I think anyone moving in the lane has a heck of a chance. I found the other John Sadler entrant, Peace and Love. She didn't get the best of trips at Hollywood in her last start but was flying late and she has shown an affinity for the downhill route. She gets in awfly light with Antongeorgi and could be rallying strongly in the late stages.

So, I'm using Peace and Love, Red Opal, and Udriga, with the expectation that Red Opal gets it done, even in this wide-open, sizable field.

NT

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The gist of multi-tickets is to allow yourself a good chance to hit the Pick-6 if you are " very " right in five races and wrong in the other race, or maybe even four races if you are spending a lot of money.

Imagine you play the Pick-6 and in the first leg you think two horses look very strong and if you were going to spend a little more money you see a third you would at least like to use. Well, as you prefer the first two horses, you would not be spending your money well if you used this third idea for the same total dollars you used the on your " main " two selections. Thus you construct multiple tickets where on perhaps one major ticket you use all three but on smaller tickets you only use the two " main " selctions.

It's obviously more complicated as you go through more races but we can certainly discuss that. The basic formula is you have three lists, A horses, B horses and C horses. Every race CAN, but does not have to, have horses in each category. The construction from there is a MAIN ticket which includes A and B horses from every race and backup tickets which includes the C horses from one race and only the A horses from every other race. If you have C horses in each race you will have six back-up tickets.

The above can be further complicated with double backups as well. But, for now, we will stick to the single back-up concept.

Andy, it's probably beating an old issue, but can you elaborate on HOW this works a little bit more. It's one of the things that has confused the hell out of me for the past few year. No matter how many times I look at how someone structures a ticket in this way (multiple tickets), I guess I just haven't grasped the logic or the mechanics of it.

Maybe I still won't get it, but you're doing a generally good job explaining other things, so I thought I'd see if you could take a few minutes and try to lay out, say a pick-3 ticket using that formula just to try to knock it into my head.

Thanks.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

leg (a ) a selections pp 2 lianas lil american new shooter j/t combo good roi
pp 1 primitive peak showed nothing in debut gets rail very good work tab after try
pp 9 alluring eyes cuts back in dist 2nd start off layoff
pp 3 blazing bunny like the jock sw and shows some hart
b selections
pp 12 the cat did it
pp 10 mog knapp has the golden oats..

leg (b) a selections pp 8 moogie drops in pos jock sw
pp 11 evning escort drops in has win at sa at dist..very imprortant
pp 10 tibia speed cuts back ..


(b) selections pp 5 kendricks patsy..invader cuts back in dist..
pp 3 mohowk drops in class has back figs trainer hot


leg c (a) selections
pp 8 pauls hope drops in cuts back in dist pos jock sw
pp 11 wage a kiss stable very high roi debut mdn claimer
pp 7 peace accord trouble in last showed intent
pp 12 bartoks busta first for a tag third start
( b) selections
pp 9 golada king rev moon throws bombs first lasix off poly
pp 6 charlos court stays and showed some will after bad st
pp 1 el gato mullins is a snake has back nos...

leg (d) a selections
pp 7 anti freezette horse has good speed 2nd off the lay off moves up in class
pp 3 br desighn large drop in class tuf to dirt
no b selections.
leg (e)
a selections pp 7 movie star..whats not to like franlkle in a stake
pp 9 maxi arte jis outside post could hurt here
b selections pp 8 singalong doesent like to win will be flying late

leg d
a selections pp 1 alec finally gets an inside spot ..cuts back in dist
pp 11 highly gallent hes right there was bumbed hard inlast
pp 6 closet trader ran well on polly
pp 8 i beat fire drops down with a bullitt
b selections
pp 12 varorius knocking at the door but not that great
pp 9 living the highlife new shooter with two speed works..

[blackthroatedwind]

Let me get back to you later.

For now, look at it this way, you have three potential groups in each race, must uses ( A ), secondary uses ( B ), and throw ins ( C ).

Your play will win if one of two overall events occur.....either every race is won by a " must use " or a " secondary use " ( this is you AB / AB / AB / AB / AB / AB ticket ) OR any FIVE " must use " horses and ONE " throw in " horse wins.

In other words, you are adding an option of being very right in five races and mildly right in another, and still winning.

I know this is quick and dirty but I don't have a lot of time. So, for purposes of just throwing my hat into the contest (because I don't know if I'll be able to log on anymore the next few days), here are my picks. You guys can break it up, have fun with it, crush it, spit on it, but maybe when I come back to this thread I will learn something from it.

With little or no rationale...

3-7-10-11 / 6 / 13-7-6-4-1 /7 / 7-1-8 / 7-11-16-6

race 3
probably like blazen bunny the most second race off the claim, improving and dropping in class. cat did it doesn't have it for the stretch, I think she'll get beat again late. maybe they're thinking no blinkers will give her more awareness, but I'm taking others with the outside pp.

race 4
I think the stars align for Red Opal. She has shown ability when she's fresh. She gets the best jockey and obviously a good barn right now. She's seen the course before. No value, but I think the winner.

race 5
big field, take your pick...honestly I'm just trying to cover a few. Charlos, Peace Accord and El Gato Famoso have the best shot in my view. Charlos looks like he got shuffled back last time but was making some ground late going 5.5f. He showed some grit in his first start and Court stays on him.

race 6
single Antifreezette. Looks the fastest yesterday, today and tomorrow. Some trouble on the trip last time, but hopefully not this time. Good form coming in, as far as I know. Will the track kill him?

race 7
Movie Star, Singalong, Ballado's Thunder. BT is 2 for 3 at the distance and gets Gomez. What does that guy know??

race 8
I like Rapid Silver the best, but he's in pp 16. BUT, he was in 13 last time and almost got the job done at 7f. Looks to be improving and since they have the whole stretch to get in a good spot, I'll give him a spot on my ticket. I can't pass up Highly Gallant, but I probably should. I question how ready he is to run off the 6 month layoff. He's one of those that looks like he could use a race, to use the cliche'. And then, Phantom Gray who comes back off of a route with a trainer who wins 39% route to sprint...But, if I were feeling brave, I would probably take Highly Gallant out and put in Closet Trader, the 6, who keeps MC Baze and showed a good late effort in his last at this level.