The Weak and Confused: Charlatan Didn’t Win a Bloated Race in Saudi Arabia

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

To answer the questions, no I don't think he'll improve going two turns and no, I don't expect him to improve going 10f. But I expect very few horses of today's stakes horses to be better going longer than shorter.

Hence the idiocy of comparing such horses to Seattle Slew, a horse with question marks on both pedigree and running style in terms of his ability to stay a distance who shattered those reservations on the racetrack time and time again (not just in slanted puff pieces and hypotheticals).

When Charlatan outruns Tizamagician in the Pacific Classic in 2:02 and change are you gonna be moved to mention him in the same breath as such a horse?

Never mind Seattle Slew, Charlatan has a long way to go to emulate a horse like Rail Trip...

I'm sure you've heard the old one about the two guys being chased by a bear and the first guy says to the other "you can't outrun a bear". To which the second guy says "I don't have to outrun the bear, I just need to beat you." I bring this up to say that if Charlatan was facing top horses going two turns or 10f, I might share your doubts about how well he'd perform. But in the absence of any horses that I look at and think they are good horses, it increases my optimism about Charlatan. He doesn't have to be a great horse, he just has to be faster than the other horses against him.

You like to narrow the argument of what makes a great horse to a single trait, usually brilliance.

However, great racehorses are more than just fast early. They are sound, competitive, consistent, versatile, display stamina, overcome adversity, show courage, and have the capacity to handle multiple starts.

The irony is when a brilliant horse that is simply faster than all others gets beat, that's when suddenly all those other qualities and factors become relevant.

Oh...he had to run fast early.

Oh..he wasn't allowed to have a clear lead.

Oh...the stretch is so long.

Oh...the track was so tiring.

Oh...the rail was so dead.

Oh...there are only 28 days between this race and the next obvious target.

Oh...he couldn't get whipped the right number of times.

Oh...he couldn't have his joints injected closer than 18 days before the race.

To this point, I see no other horses that I would pick against him with any confidence, with Mishriff being the obvious exception. You mentioned Code of Honor, Express Train, Performer, Mystic Guide, Silver State, The Sound, and Maxfield. The only horse among those that I see anywhere close to as talented as Charlatan is Maxfield and again, he's under the same red flag health wise as Charlatan is, maybe even a bigger one. At this point, I'm taking Charlatan against any of them going any distance.

That's another limitation of your argument. Maybe you have become numbed by the drop off in quality racing over the past few decades, but believe it or not, all races are not 2-horse races no matter how the hack turf writers frame the pre-race hype. That's the overarching lesson from the Saudi Cup.

Charlatan might beat all those easily in separate match races but nothing from his loss on Saturday suggests that he will fend off multiple challenges from even lesser horses over a meaningful distance of ground.

He was able to put away a horse that folds like a cheap suit, blew a 2-length lead in the stretch, and offered little resistance when headed at the 1/16th pole.

Why any of that rouses confidence in his ability to go a classic distance never mind stirs memories of great horses in gallant displays of defeat is beyond me.

Hopefully, we get the chance to see it play out on the track although the chances of that aren't very high.

If not, then the argument will become "if a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?"

However, because of all the misplaced and/or scheming hype attached to this horse, one question has already been answered (and it won't matter which of the two guys the bear ends up eating):

Question: Will Charlatan be considered a major stallion prospect despite accomplishing very little?

Answer: Does a bear sh!t in the woods?

[King Glorious]

The thing is, from me, you haven't heard talk that Charlatan is a great horse. I'm not looking to put him in the hall of fame. I wouldn't dare compare him to even the better horses we've seen in the last few years, horses like Gun Runner and American Pharoah. For me, this was never about his standing as a great horse. It's only been a question of whether or not he could be the best horse of this year.

I agree with you that in order to be a great horse, the more different things you can show, the better. At the same time, I don't think you can discount a horse's brilliance simply because of the lack of certain things on the resume. Nobody that watched Gayle Sayers disputes how great he was even though he didn't have the longevity that Emmitt Smith had. Sandy Koufax didn't have the career that Bob Gibson had but people say he was every bit as good if not better. Most veteran observers of football say Pat Mahomes is one of, if not the most talented quarterbacks they have ever seen even though his resume will likely never match Tom Brady's or Peyton Manning's

There is actual and there is speculative. I've never put Charlatan in the great category in comparison to all-timers. But I don't think he'd have to be in order to be the best of this year.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I agree with you that in order to be a great horse, the more different things you can show, the better. At the same time, I don't think you can discount a horse's brilliance simply because of the lack of certain things on the resume. Nobody that watched Gayle Sayers disputes how great he was even though he didn't have the longevity that Emmitt Smith had. Sandy Koufax didn't have the career that Bob Gibson had but people say he was every bit as good if not better. Most veteran observers of football say Pat Mahomes is one of, if not the most talented quarterbacks they have ever seen even though his resume will likely never match Tom Brady's or Peyton Manning's.

Not good comparisons. I'm no expert on their careers, but I presume all those players displayed multiple talents and skills to earn their reputations despite abbreviated careers. They weren't limited to being adept at just one thing.

Charlatan is a brilliant sprinter that has yet to stretch out to any great effect. He has shown no versatility, little courage, and no ability to relax in the early stages or overcome adversity. I guess you can he doesn't completely fold under pressure, though. And he ships well.

To this point he's like a pitcher that can throw a 100 mph fastball but has no control and can't pitch a complete game.

There is actual and there is speculative. I've never put Charlatan in the great category in comparison to all-timers. But I don't think he'd have to be in order to be the best of this year.

You're probably right, but he will probably have to run more than twice.

As it stands now I would speculate the earliest we will see him is in the Alysheba in May. That's an 8.5 furlong, non-grade 1 carded on a day when Churchill Downs is invariably tailored to be speed-oriented, so it probably won't answer too many questions in the Charlataniad aside from whether or not our hero can overcome the dreaded First Turn.

But really, with limited time on his side, he needs to go for the Met Mile, Whitney, and Woodward or Goodwood to confirm his reputation and his purported abilities.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Not good comparisons. I'm no expert on their careers, but I presume all those players displayed multiple talents and skills to earn their reputations despite abbreviated careers. They weren't limited to being adept at just one thing.

Charlatan is a brilliant sprinter that has yet to stretch out to any great effect. He has shown no versatility, little courage, and no ability to relax in the early stages or overcome adversity. I guess you can he doesn't completely fold under pressure, though. And he ships well.

To this point he's like a pitcher that can throw a 100 mph fastball but has no control and can't pitch a complete game.


You're probably right, but he will probably have to run more than twice.

As it stands now I would speculate the earliest we will see him is in the Alysheba in May. That's an 8.5 furlong, non-grade 1 carded on a day when Churchill Downs is invariably tailored to be speed-oriented, so it probably won't answer too many questions in the Charlataniad aside from whether or not our hero can overcome the dreaded First Turn.

But really, with limited time on his side, he needs to go for the Met Mile, Whitney, and Woodward or Goodwood to confirm his reputation and his purported abilities.

You're giving him more credit than I am. I wouldn't even call him a brilliant sprinter. King Glorious, Lost in the Fog, Artax, Safely Kept, those were brilliant sprinters. But I think calling him brilliant off of beating Nashville, who I did think was very good but obviously failed his class test, was a little less impressive than his Saudi Arabian effort.

[goodcopy]

You have got to be kidding, Charlatan is at best a quality Gr.1 or Gr.2 stakes horse that is still developing, not even the best or the favorite for H.O.Y..
Maxfield, True Timber ,Guarana, Happy Saver and others still to be seen.
Comparing any horses mentioned in this mindless dribble of articles and post leads me to believe you are all on Drugs!

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by goodcopy

You have got to be kidding, Charlatan is at best a quality Gr.1 or Gr.2 stakes horse that is still developing, not even the best or the favorite for H.O.Y..
Maxfield, True Timber ,Guarana, Happy Saver and others still to be seen.
Comparing any horses mentioned in this mindless dribble of articles and post leads me to believe you are all on Drugs!

Surely, you've got to understand the absolute silliness of saying Maxfield is legit but Charlatan isn't right? And then to mention Guarana just makes it outright dumb. To be clear, this isn't to say that neither of them aren't as talented cause they both could actually be more talented. But to this point, neither has done more than Charlatan and haven't shown any propensity to be healthier. Same with Happy Saver. He's run even few times than Happy Saver.

But True Timber? The same horse that lost 13 straight races before winning the Cigar? His FIRST stakes win in 29 career starts?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Surely, you've got to understand the absolute silliness of saying Maxfield is legit but Charlatan isn't right? And then to mention Guarana just makes it outright dumb. To be clear, this isn't to say that neither of them aren't as talented cause they both could actually be more talented. But to this point, neither has done more than Charlatan and haven't shown any propensity to be healthier. Same with Happy Saver. He's run even few times than Happy Saver.

But True Timber? The same horse that lost 13 straight races before winning the Cigar? His FIRST stakes win in 29 career starts?

Guarana has won three Grade 1s, one of them at 9F. She may not be better than Charlatan but she has done more.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by goodcopy

You have got to be kidding, Charlatan is at best a quality Gr.1 or Gr.2 stakes horse that is still developing, not even the best or the favorite for H.O.Y..
Maxfield, True Timber ,Guarana, Happy Saver and others still to be seen.
Comparing any horses mentioned in this mindless dribble of articles and post leads me to believe you are all on Drugs!

Most ironic post ever?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Guarana has won three Grade 1s, one of them at 9F. She may not be better than Charlatan but she has done more.

Ok. If you want to be technical. He's also won a grade one at 9f, despite what the official record shows. We all saw the race.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Ok. If you want to be technical. He's also won a grade one at 9f, despite what the official record shows. We all saw the race.

OK, but she still won one at 7F, 8F, and 9F...and she didn't get disqualified for a drug positive in any of them. It's OK to admit you were wrong. Really.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK, but she still won one at 7F, 8F, and 9F...and she didn't get disqualified for a drug positive in any of them. It's OK to admit you were wrong. Really.

I was wrong. I knew what she had won. I was saying much of the same things about her as I say about Charlatan. The point was that she is a lightly raced horse that has faced physical challenges, just like he has. She has shown a ton of talent at shorter distances but also has shown enough talent to stretch it out to 9f, as he has. I think she’s nearly a mirror image of him as far as on track performance.

[goodcopy]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Surely, you've got to understand the absolute silliness of saying Maxfield is legit but Charlatan isn't right? And then to mention Guarana just makes it outright dumb. To be clear, this isn't to say that neither of them aren't as talented cause they both could actually be more talented. But to this point, neither has done more than Charlatan and haven't shown any propensity to be healthier. Same with Happy Saver. He's run even few times than Happy Saver.

But True Timber? The same horse that lost 13 straight races before winning the Cigar? His FIRST stakes win in 29 career starts?

Charlatan did not win the Saudi Cup,has not won a H.O.Y. and no jewels of a triple crown race.
By the way the best horse he beat was Basin in the Arkansas derby under suspicious drug controversy.
Boby Baffert is not the only trainer in the world!